Duration of Car Movement in the Flow as a Traffic Congestion Indicator

The relevance of studying traffic congestion is determined by the need to find a scientifically based criterion for its emergence, development and elimination using modern methods of processing information about car flows. The objective of this study is to reveal a quantitative criterion for emergence and evolution of traffic congestion based on a deterministic estimate of time of movement of individual vehicles in the general flow between control boundaries as a random variable of mean value, mode, median, standard deviation, variation indicators, asymmetry, and kurtosis.

The subject of the study related to the patterns of evolution of the listed deterministic indicators of traffic flows, which can be used for operational forecasting of formation, development, and elimination of traffic congestion. The initial data were obtained using hardware and software systems for fixing traffic violations installed on the urban street-and-road network. As a result of the study, it was found that for the same section of the road, the listed deterministic indicators of a random variable differ significantly during free movement of road transport and in case of a traffic jam. It seems promising to use the average value of duration of movement of cars to identify the stages of emergence, development, and disappearance (liquidation) of traffic congestion. The proposed indicator can serve as a basis for developing a mechanism for real-time assessment of the likelihood of emergence of traffic jams, as well as for developing recommendations for the rapid response of transport services to prevent and eliminate them.