Russian Journal of Biological Invasions, volume 16, issue 3, pages 149-167

INTEGRATED APPROACH TO ACCOUNTING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS IN MODELS OF THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION AND CLIMATIC DYNAMICS OF AMBROSIA ARTEMISIIFOLIA L. IN THE CAUCASUS

PSHEGUSOV R.H., CHADAEVA V.A.

Publication type: Journal Article

Publication date: 2023-09-06

Pleiades Publishing

Journal: Russian Journal of Biological Invasions

Quartile SCImago

Quartile WOS

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Impact factor: 0.6

ISSN: 20751117, 20751125, 19961499

DOI: 10.35885/1996-1499-16-3-149-167

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General Medicine

Abstract

Current climate change, habitat degradation and road network development contribute to the invasion of alien plant species in areas of more northern latitudes and higher altitudes. Using the maximum entropy method (Maxent), we built the spatial distribution models of Ambrosia artemisiifolia , considering abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic factors, and area accessibility. Maps of the species current distribution in the Caucasus and its range dynamics according to the climate change scenarios were constructed. The most important variables determining A. artemisiifolia spatial localization in the region were as follows: distance to roads (not more than 0-5 m), terrain roughness (gentle areas) and humidity (climate from semi-arid to pergumid). The 0-5 m distance is also characterized by the area accessibility factor (species dispersal capacity), which contributed about 47% to the final model. Species dispersal beyond roadsides was hindered by forests and meadows with the probability of A. artemisiifolia occurrence not exceeding 0.01%. The species core ranges were predicted in foothills and low mountains of the Western and Central Caucasus, Western and Central Transcaucasia, the northwestern Lesser Caucasus and the Caspian Sea coast. The species invasion in highlands could occur along the gentle river valleys that concentrate the main mountain roads. According to the pessimistic and optimistic climate change scenarios, by 2100 the decline in optimal A. artemisiifolia habitats will be 87 and 27%, respectively, and will affect mainly the plain areas of the currently most humid regions. The main core ranges were predicted in the middle mountains and highlands of the Caucasus.

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PSHEGUSOV R.H., CHADAEVA V.A. INTEGRATED APPROACH TO ACCOUNTING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS IN MODELS OF THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION AND CLIMATIC DYNAMICS OF AMBROSIA ARTEMISIIFOLIA L. IN THE CAUCASUS // Russian Journal of Biological Invasions. 2023. Vol. 16. No. 3. pp. 149-167.

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TY - JOUR

DO - 10.35885/1996-1499-16-3-149-167

UR - https://doi.org/10.35885%2F1996-1499-16-3-149-167

TI - INTEGRATED APPROACH TO ACCOUNTING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS IN MODELS OF THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION AND CLIMATIC DYNAMICS OF AMBROSIA ARTEMISIIFOLIA L. IN THE CAUCASUS

T2 - Russian Journal of Biological Invasions

AU - PSHEGUSOV, R H

AU - CHADAEVA, V A

PY - 2023

DA - 2023/09/06 00:00:00

PB - Pleiades Publishing

SP - 149-167

IS - 3

VL - 16

SN - 2075-1117

SN - 2075-1125

SN - 1996-1499

ER -

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BibTex Copy

@article{2023,

author = {R H PSHEGUSOV and V A CHADAEVA},

title = {INTEGRATED APPROACH TO ACCOUNTING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS IN MODELS OF THE CURRENT DISTRIBUTION AND CLIMATIC DYNAMICS OF AMBROSIA ARTEMISIIFOLIA L. IN THE CAUCASUS},

journal = {Russian Journal of Biological Invasions},

year = {2023},

volume = {16},

publisher = {Pleiades Publishing},

month = {sep},

url = {https://doi.org/10.35885%2F1996-1499-16-3-149-167},

number = {3},

pages = {149--167},

doi = {10.35885/1996-1499-16-3-149-167}

}

Found error?

Publisher

Pleiades Publishing

Journal

Russian Journal of Biological Invasions

Quartile SCImago

Quartile WOS

—

Impact factor

0.6

ISSN

20751117 (Print)
20751125 (Electronic)
19961499 (Print)

Labs

Laboratory of Geobotanical Research