Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research

Hansmeier H., Losacker S., Bersch J., Kroll H.

ABSTRACTThe regional variety of actors is considered a key determinant in the last decade's rich literature on the geography of eco‐innovation and green regional development. However, little is known about the extent to which regions differ in their specialization in new and established eco‐innovation actors. In this article, we propose a regional typology based on green specializations concerning both incumbents and start‐ups in the German transport sector. While many regions show green specializations in either start‐ups or incumbents, only some regions manage to specialize in both. We find that the above‐average regional specialization in eco‐innovation does not seem to be primarily a phenomenon of urban areas, but rather depends on regions' human capital endowments and technological capabilities. The observed heterogeneity in eco‐innovation specializations, both in innovation centers and lagging regions, calls for regional policies that are more sensitive to these differences.

Wicke T., Weymann L., Neef C., Tübke J.

The increase in battery demand, particularly from the mobility sector, has resulted in a significant increase in the required production capacities. Europe is facing a large-scale expansion of production capacities. Currently, the battery cell demand in the region accounts for approximately 25% of global demand, while only 10% of global production capacities are located there. This has motivated the announcement of a large number of production projects of over 2 TWh by 2030, which would mean overcapacity compared to projected European cell demand. In recent years, however, many of the announced Gigafactories have been delayed or cancelled. This paper aims to develop a risk assessment model for forecasting realistic future capacities for battery cell production in Europe. The proposed model combines an evaluation of industry announcements at the project level with a Monte Carlo simulation to translate the announced production projects into a European production capacity forecast. Therefore, the likelihood of implementation for individual projects is analysed within 11 topics (company, country and maturity related) and scenarios for future European production capacities are elaborated. Model validation indicates that from 54% to 75% of the announced capacities in Europe are likely to be realised (approx. 1.2 GWh–1.7 GWh by 2030). The majority of battery production projects announced in Europe are still in the planning phase (66%) with Germany, France, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe emerging as key regions. The modelling of production capacities predicts that dependency on cell imports to Europe will be reduced compared to today.

Faure C., Schleich J.

Malta-Kira T., Fu X., Shi L.

Abstract Science parks have been an integral component of the open national innovation system (ONIS). However, science park internationalization as an important yet neglected mechanism of international innovation cooperation is poorly understood. There has been limited understanding of the political dynamics in the international system that affect the nature and process of ‘opening’. This paper fills the gap by exploring the factors affecting internationalization of science parks from a realist perspective of international relations against the background of ONIS, based on case studies on China’s science parks. The results support our propositions that political interference in both China as the rising power and the dominant power (USA) has been a major factor affecting performance of science park internationalization when the process of ‘opening’ is intertwined with the strategic interests of the state on both sides. Findings from the study suggest the reconfiguration of ONIS in geopolitical context with significant policy implications.

Alsheimer S., Dütschke E., Schleich J.

Wesche J.P., Dütschke E., Negro S.O., Hekkert M.P.

IntroductionAchieving sustainability transitions requires substantial policy changes, often driven by coalitions of actors advocating for institutional change and transformative agendas. While the transitions literature highlights the importance of coalition coordination, the underlying processes remain insufficiently understood. This study explores the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) to derive insights into the coordination and dynamics of advocacy coalitions relevant to sustainability transitions.MethodsA systematic review of ACF literature was conducted, encompassing an initial corpus of over 700 articles and refining it to a final set of 45 documents. These documents were analyzed using qualitative coding to identify key factors influencing coalition coordination and to conceptualize coalition dynamics across the phases of sustainability transitions.ResultsThe review identifies four categories of factors shaping coalition coordination: prerequisites for coordination, reasons to coordinate, instrumental factors that influence coordination, and internal organization of coalitions. Additionally, it outlines how coordination patterns evolve across four sustainability transition phases, leading to the development of a typology that integrates dynamics within coalitions and across coalitions with two transition pathways: technological substitution and reconfiguration.DiscussionThis study advances the understanding of the political processes underpinning sustainability transitions by integrating ACF insights into transition studies. It underscores the importance of belief systems, resource access, and trust in fostering effective coalition coordination. The proposed typology offers a conceptual framework to guide future empirical research on coalition dynamics and their role in accelerating sustainability transitions.

Bullock S., Larkin A., Köhler J.

Distel A.P., Schubert T., Sofka W.

Fuchs D., Bodenheimer M., Dütschke E.

Flipo A., Alexander-Haw A., Breucker F., Dütschke E.

Sufficiency consists of less materially intensive consumption patterns that focus on wellbeing rather than material wealth. Such consumption patterns are commonly referred to as sufficiency lifestyles and are increasingly seen as a key driver for achieving decarbonisation. However, while research finds that sustainable consumption and environmental behaviour are often associated with high social status, lower carbon footprints and lower consumption more broadly are associated in the literature with poverty and deprivation. This article aims to investigate whether a combination of low carbon footprint and high wellbeing exists, what socio-demographic characteristics are associated with it, and to explore the actual experiences of people engaged in sufficiency lifestyles through initiatives and their characteristics. We use a mixed-methods design with data from demographically representative surveys in Denmark, Germany, Italy and Latvia (N=5,080), and in-depth interviews with participants from sufficiency-oriented intentional communities (N=90). We find that sufficiency lifestyles are linked to a stronger inclination towards sufficiency orientation or a heightened stronger environmental identity, accompanied by a negative correlation with social deprivation aspects. Drawing on the interviews, we find that individuals engaged in sufficiency-oriented practices tend to benefit from economic, social and cultural resources that allow them to overcome energy dependency and constraints, and that their motivations are not limited to pro-environmental behaviour. Based on these empirical findings, we explore potential avenues for the diffusion of sufficiency-oriented lifestyles, including the establishment of binding rules through a democratic process that curb overconsumption while providing attractive low-carbon lifestyles for all.

Fuchs D., Debourdeau A., Dütschke E., Fahy F., Garzon G., Kirchler B., Klöckner C.A., Sahakian M.

Scientific evidence highlights the pivotal role for structural change in pursuit of the sustainability transformation. A particular challenge for research on structural aspects of sustainable consumption and lifestyles, however, is the assessment of their impact. Especially quantifying the impact of structural change remains a serious problem. While some forms of structural change can be quantified, like the rate of building renovations, changes in the energy mix at the production level, or trends in access to health care or education, the impact of other changes such as societal narratives about wellbeing, political campaigns on energy technologies or policies, or the abandonment of the growth paradigm defy easy quantification. This article aims to shed light on potential avenues for quantitatively assessing the impact of structural change drawing on insights gained by a group of international and interdisciplinary research consortia funded by the European Union in the area of sustainable consumption, citizenship, and lifestyles research. It delineates strengths and weaknesses of different approaches, foci and blindspots of associated data types. Thereby, it highlights fundamental decisions that need to be made in research designs, but also important aspects to consider in the interpretation of results. Finally, the article highlights the particular challenges related to assessing the impact of deep political and ideational structures.

Bagheri M., Tröger J., Freudenberg C.

As a major contributor to overall carbon emissions and energy consumption, the housing sector has great potential to reduce energy consumption, whether by reducing the number of appliances, heating temperature or floor space. Consumption patterns encompass how people choose and consume products that satisfy their needs and wants. However, wants, and to some extent needs, are influenced by various factors and existing material and non-material (infra)structures, especially in the housing sector. Focusing on the floor area, this article aims to identify potentials towards lower consumption lifestyles by applying the Avoid-Shift-Improve framework in the residential sector. Through a conceptual review, the article explores what shapes current patterns of space use and outlines potential future pathways. Starting from the macro level, the article examines existing and emerging (societal) trends with (potential) impacts on housing consumption. It then looks at the structural development of households affected by the studied trends. At the micro level, the article provides an overview of the potential impact of individual behaviour on space use patterns within different categories of housing behaviour. The article identifies the potential for social and technical change in the housing sector and concludes that promoting non-materialistic narratives (avoid), offering alternative and innovative solutions to satisfy people’s spatial needs (shift) and designing flexible buildings (improve) appear to be effective ways for fostering behavioural change towards more efficient use of space.

BAUMGARTNER M., HORVAT D., KINKEL S., KICK E.

Successfully adopting AI and realising its full innovation potential requires different competences within a company. We identified five clusters, namely, AI decision-making, AI utilisation, AI foundational, AI development and leadership & moderation competences, as the basis for our AI competence framework, combining 35 individual competences. Based on a quantitative survey of 215 companies, we determined the importance of these competences for the successful adoption of AI innovations and their current availability within companies. According to our findings, AI foundational competences play a particularly critical role compared to the other competence clusters, which are considered important but comparatively rarely available. Furthermore, our analyses show that companies with higher levels of AI foundational, AI development, and AI utilisation competences have significantly higher AI innovation capabilities. Again, in particular AI foundational competences seem to fertilize the capabilities to identify appropriate AI use cases, to make decisions about AI innovation adoption, to successfully integrate AI into internal processes, and to use the AI innovation effectively within the organisation. Our findings thus enrich the theoretical discourse on competences for organisational adoption of AI innovations and guide practitioners in taking action to develop the necessary competences.

Neuwirth M., Fleiter T., Hofmann R.

AbstractThe transition towards climate-neutral industry is a challenge, particularly for heavy industries like steel and basic chemicals. Existing models for assessing industrial transformation often lack spatial resolution and fail to capture individual investment decisions. Consequently, the spatial interplay between industry transformation, energy availability, infrastructure availability, and the dynamics of discrete investments is inadequately addressed. Here we present a site-specific approach that considers individual industrial sites to simulate discrete investment decisions. The investment decision is modelled as a discrete choice among alternative technologies with their total cost of ownership as the main decision criterion. Process costs depend on the scenario-specific assumptions, such as energy carrier prices, policy instruments and local infrastructures. The age of production units and their reinvestment cycles are considered the main restrictions on the dynamics of the transition. The results provide high spatial resolution to capture the spatial and temporal dynamics of industry transition under varying process and policy assumptions. The presented model and its results can be coupled with energy system models to assess the implications of site-specific industry transition on energy system related research questions. We conduct an exemplary case study for a transformation pathway of the European primary steel production.

Rostek L., Loibl A.

AbstractCircular economy and criticality assessments require comprehensive monitoring of anthropogenic material flows and stocks at a regional level. Therefore, this study presents a multiregional trade‐linked dynamic MFA model for zinc. The model covers the entire life cycle from mining to recycling for the regions China, Europe, North America, Latin America, and Asia. The dynamic approach allows the analysis of the development of the cycles from 1995 to 2020. The interregional trade is quantified at each life cycle stage by using the Comtrade database. Sensitivity analysis is applied to account for uncertainties in the exogenous data. The results reveal large regional disparities in the zinc industry. While China shows enormous growth, Europe has already reached a steady state in zinc consumption and anthropogenic stock. The current global consumption is strongly driven by China, leading to a strong increase of its zinc stock in use. However, Europe has the largest zinc stock in use, especially on a per capita basis. North America's zinc consumption is decoupled from its economic growth, as evidenced by the recent decline in its zinc stock in use. In terms of recycling, Europe shows the highest volumes and the best circular performance, as indicated by high recycling rates, partly due to the extensive use of more easily recyclable product types. In all regions, there is potential for increased recycling by treatment of zinc‐bearing steelmaking dusts. China's strict regulation successfully triggered large‐scale implementation of respective recovery processes, leading to increasing recycling rates. This article met the requirements for a gold‐gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.