Segmental interpolating spectra for solar particle events and in situ validation

Li C., Miroshnichenko L.I., Fang C.

We present a study of 7 large solar proton events (SPEs) of current solar cycle 24 (from 2009 January up to date). They were recorded by GOES spacecraft with highest proton fluxes over 200 pfu for energies $>$10 MeV. In situ particle measurements show that: (1) The profiles of the proton fluxes are highly dependent of the locations of their solar sources, namely flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs); (2) The solar particle release (SPR) times fall in the decay phase of the flare emission, and are in accordance with the times when the CMEs travel to an average height of 7.9 solar radii; (3) The time differences between the SPR and the flare peak are also dependent of the locations of the solar active regions (ARs). The results tend to support the concept of proton acceleration by the CME-driven shock, even though there exists a possibility of particle acceleration at flare site with subsequent perpendicular diffusion of accelerated particles in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). We derive the integral time-of-maximum (TOM) spectra of solar protons in two forms: a single power-law distribution and a power law broken with an exponential tail. It is found that the unique Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) event on 2012 May 17 displays a hardest spectrum and a largest broken energy that may explain why the this event could extend to relativistic energy.

Miroshnichenko L.

Sandberg I., Jiggens P., Heynderickx D., Daglis I.A.

Solar proton flux measurements onboard Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) are of great importance as they cover several solar cycles, increasingly contributing to the development of long-term solar proton models and to operational purposes such as now-casting and forecasting of space weather. A novel approach for the cross calibration of GOES solar proton detectors is developed using as reference energetic solar proton flux measurements of NASA IMP-8 Goddard Medium Energy Experiment (GME). The spurious behavior in a part of IMP-8/GME measurements is reduced through the derivation of a nonlinear intercalibration function. The effective energy values of GOES solar proton detectors lead to a significant reduction of the uncertainties in spectra and may be used to refine existing scientific results, available models, and data products based on measurements over the last three decades. The methods presented herein are generic and may be used for calibration processes of other data sets as well.

Posner A., Hesse M., St. Cyr O.C.

Space weather forecasting critically depends upon availability of timely and reliable observational data. It is therefore particularly important to understand how existing and newly planned observational assets perform during periods of severe space weather. Extreme space weather creates challenging conditions under which instrumentation and spacecraft may be impeded or in which parameters reach values that are outside the nominal observational range. This paper analyzes existing and upcoming observational capabilities for forecasting, and discusses how the findings may impact space weather research and its transition to operations. A single limitation to the assessment is lack of information provided to us on radiation monitor performance, which caused us not to fully assess (i.e., not assess short term) radiation storm forecasting. The assessment finds that at least two widely spaced coronagraphs including L4 would provide reliability for Earth-bound CMEs. Furthermore, all magnetic field measurements assessed fully meet requirements. However, with current or even with near term new assets in place, in the worst-case scenario there could be a near-complete lack of key near-real-time solar wind plasma data of severe disturbances heading toward and impacting Earth's magnetosphere. Models that attempt to simulate the effects of these disturbances in near real time or with archival data require solar wind plasma observations as input. Moreover, the study finds that near-future observational assets will be less capable of advancing the understanding of extreme geomagnetic disturbances at Earth, which might make the resulting space weather models unsuitable for transition to operations.Manuscript assesses current and near-future space weather assetsCurrent assets unreliable for forecasting of severe geomagnetic stormsNear-future assets will not improve the situation.

Zeitlin C., Hassler D.M., Cucinotta F.A., Ehresmann B., Wimmer-Schweingruber R.F., Brinza D.E., Kang S., Weigle G., Böttcher S., Böhm E., Burmeister S., Guo J., Köhler J., Martin C., Posner A., et. al.

Going to Mars The Mars Science Laboratory spacecraft containing the Curiosity rover, was launched from Earth in November 2011 and arrived at Gale crater on Mars in August 2012. Zeitlin et al. (p. 1080 ) report measurements of the energetic particle radiation environment inside the spacecraft during its cruise to Mars, confirming the hazard likely to be posed by this radiation to astronauts on a future potential trip to Mars. Williams et al. (p. 1068 , see the Perspective by Jerolmack ) report the detection of sedimentary conglomerates (pebbles mixed with sand and turned to rock) at Gale crater. The rounding of the rocks suggests abrasion of the pebbles as they were transported by flowing water several kilometers or more from their source.

Joyce C.J., Schwadron N.A., Wilson J.K., Spence H.E., Kasper J.C., Golightly M., Blake J.B., Mazur J., Townsend L.W., Case A.W., Semones E., Smith S., Zeitlin C.J.

[1] PREDICCS (Predictions of Radiation from Release, EMMREM, and Data Incorporating the CRaTER, COSTEP and other SEP measurements, prediccs.sr.unh.edu) is an online system designed to provide a near real-time characterization of the radiation environment of the inner heliosphere. PREDICCS utilizes data from various satellites in conjunction with numerical models such as the Earth-Moon-Mars Radiation Environment Module (EMMREM) to produce dose rate and particle flux data at the Earth, Moon and Mars. The Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument launched aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) spacecraft in 2009 and designed to measure energetic particle radiation, offers an opportunity to test the capability of PREDICCS to accurately describe the lunar radiation environment. We provide comparisons between dose rates produced by PREDICCS with those measured by CRaTER during three major solar energetic particle (SEP) events that occurred in 2012. In addition, using EMMREM data products together with our archive of measured CRaTER dose rates, we compute the modulation potential at the Moon throughout the LRO mission and, using this, compute the background GCR dose rate during each event. We demonstrate reasonable agreement between PREDICCS and CRaTER dose rates and come to the conclusion that PREDICCS provides credible characterization of the lunar radiation environment. This study represents the first multi-event validation, via in situ measurement, of radiation models such as EMMREM, which should prove to be valuable in future efforts in risk assessment and in the study of radiation in the inner heliosphere.

Reames D.V.

Evidence for two different physical mechanisms for acceleration of solar energetic particles (SEPs) arose 50 years ago with radio observations of type III bursts, produced by outward streaming electrons, and type II bursts from coronal and interplanetary shock waves. Since that time we have found that the former are related to “impulsive” SEP events from impulsive flares or jets. Here, resonant stochastic acceleration, related to magnetic reconnection involving open field lines, produces not only electrons but 1000-fold enhancements of 3He/4He and of (Z>50)/O. Alternatively, in “gradual” SEP events, shock waves, driven out from the Sun by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), more democratically sample ion abundances that are even used to measure the coronal abundances of the elements. Gradual events produce by far the highest SEP intensities near Earth. Sometimes residual impulsive suprathermal ions contribute to the seed population for shock acceleration, complicating the abundance picture, but this process has now been modeled theoretically. Initially, impulsive events define a point source on the Sun, selectively filling few magnetic flux tubes, while gradual events show extensive acceleration that can fill half of the inner heliosphere, beginning when the shock reaches ∼2 solar radii. Shock acceleration occurs as ions are scattered back and forth across the shock by resonant Alfvén waves amplified by the accelerated protons themselves as they stream away. These waves also can produce a streaming-limited maximum SEP intensity and plateau region upstream of the shock. Behind the shock lies the large expanse of the “reservoir”, a spatially extensive trapped volume of uniform SEP intensities with invariant energy-spectral shapes where overall intensities decrease with time as the enclosing “magnetic bottle” expands adiabatically. These reservoirs now explain the slow intensity decrease that defines gradual events and was once erroneously attributed solely to slow outward diffusion of the particles. At times the reservoir from one event can contribute its abundances and even its spectra as a seed population for acceleration by a second CME-driven shock wave. Confinement of particles to magnetic flux tubes that thread their source early in events is balanced at late times by slow velocity-dependent migration through a tangled network produced by field-line random walk that is probed by SEPs from both impulsive and gradual events and even by anomalous cosmic rays from the outer heliosphere. As a practical consequence, high-energy protons from gradual SEP events can be a significant radiation hazard to astronauts and equipment in space and to the passengers of high-altitude aircraft flying polar routes.

Hu S., Smirnova O.A., Cucinotta F.A.

A biomathematical model of lymphopoiesis is described and used to analyze the lymphocyte changes observed in the blood of exposed victims in radiation accidents. The coarse-grained architecture of cellular replication and production and implicit cellular regulation mechanisms used in this model make it straightforward to incorporate various radiation conditions. Model simulations with reported absorbed doses as inputs are shown to qualitatively and quantitatively describe a wide range of accidental data in vastly different scenarios. In addition, the absolute lymphocyte counts and the depletion rate constants calculated by this model show good correlation with two widely recognized empirical methods for early dose assessment. This demonstrates the potential to use the biophysical model as an alternative method for the assessment of radiation injury in the case of large-scale radiation disaster. The physiological assumptions underlying the model are also discussed, which may provide a putative mechanism for some biodosimetric tools that use the peripheral blood cell counts as markers of radiation impairment.

Durante M., Cucinotta F.A.

The health risks of space radiation are arguably the most serious challenge to space exploration, possibly preventing these missions due to safety concerns or increasing their costs to amounts beyond what would be acceptable. Radiation in space is substantially different from Earth: high-energy ($E$) and charge ($Z$) particles (HZE) provide the main contribution to the equivalent dose in deep space, whereas $\ensuremath{\gamma}$ rays and low-energy $\ensuremath{\alpha}$ particles are major contributors on Earth. This difference causes a high uncertainty on the estimated radiation health risk (including cancer and noncancer effects), and makes protection extremely difficult. In fact, shielding is very difficult in space: the very high energy of the cosmic rays and the severe mass constraints in spaceflight represent a serious hindrance to effective shielding. Here the physical basis of space radiation protection is described, including the most recent achievements in space radiation transport codes and shielding approaches. Although deterministic and Monte Carlo transport codes can now describe well the interaction of cosmic rays with matter, more accurate double-differential nuclear cross sections are needed to improve the codes. Energy deposition in biological molecules and related effects should also be developed to achieve accurate risk models for long-term exploratory missions. Passive shielding can be effective for solar particle events; however, it is limited for galactic cosmic rays (GCR). Active shielding would have to overcome challenging technical hurdles to protect against GCR. Thus, improved risk assessment and genetic and biomedical approaches are a more likely solution to GCR radiation protection issues.

Mazur J.E., Crain W.R., Looper M.D., Mabry D.J., Blake J.B., Case A.W., Golightly M.J., Kasper J.C., Spence H.E.

[1] We report new measurements of solar minimum ionizing radiation dose at the Moon onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) from June 2009 through May 2010. The Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER) instrument on LRO houses a compact and highly precise microdosimeter whose design allows measurements of dose rates below 1 micro-Rad per second in silicon achieved with minimal resources (20 g, ∼250 milliwatts, and ∼3 bits/second). We envision the use of such a small yet accurate dosimeter in many future spaceflight applications where volume, mass, and power are highly constrained. As this was the first operation of the microdosimeter in a space environment, the goal of this study is to verify its response by using simultaneous measurements of the galactic cosmic ray ionizing environment at LRO, at L1, and with other concurrent dosimeter measurements and model predictions. The microdosimeter measured the same short timescale modulations in the galactic cosmic rays as the other independent measurements, thus verifying its response to a known source of minimum-ionizing particles. The total dose for the LRO mission over the first 333 days was only 12.2 Rads behind ∼130 mils of aluminum because of the delayed rise of solar activity in solar cycle 24 and the corresponding lack of intense solar energetic particle events. The dose rate in a 50 km lunar orbit was about 30 percent lower than the interplanetary rate, as one would expect from lunar obstruction of the visible sky.

Hu S., Cucinotta F.A.

Bone marrow failure is the major cause of radiation lethality in mammals. Since bone marrow is distributed heterogeneously within trabecular spongiosa encased in a cortex of cortical bone, it is very difficult to measure the extent of the radiation damage directly. However, indirect consequences of damage to marrow, such as reductions in peripheral blood cell counts, are easily measured. In this paper, the authors investgate a mathematical model of the granulopoiesis system that provides quantitative relationships between reductions in peripheral blood cells and the bone marrow precursor cells following radiation exposure. A coarse-grained architecture of cellular replication and production as well as a mechanism for implicit regulation used in this model are discussed. The model is based on previous investigations of rodents. The authors test how well the model matches, in the principal dynamic regime of hematopoiesis, experimental data on large animals as well as empirical data on humans following radiation exposure. Due to its ability to infer, albeit indirectly, radiation damage to bone marrow, this model will provide a useful computational tool in radiation accident management, military operations involving nuclear warfare, radiation therapy, and space radiation risk assessment.

Cucinotta F.A., Hu S., Schwadron N.A., Kozarev K., Townsend L.W., Kim M.Y.

[1] We review NASA's short-term and career radiation limits for astronauts and methods for their application to future exploration missions outside of low Earth orbit. Career limits are intended to restrict late occurring health effects and include a 3% risk of exposure-induced death from cancer and new limits for central nervous system and heart disease risks. Short-term dose limits are used to prevent in-flight radiation sickness or death through restriction of the doses to the blood forming organs and to prevent clinically significant cataracts or skin damage through lens and skin dose limits, respectively. Large uncertainties exist in estimating the health risks of space radiation, chiefly the understanding of the radiobiology of heavy ions and dose rate and dose protraction effects, and the limitations in human epidemiology data. To protect against these uncertainties NASA estimates the 95% confidence in the cancer risk projection intervals as part of astronaut flight readiness assessments and mission design. Accurate organ dose and particle spectra models are needed to ensure astronauts stay below radiation limits and to support the goal of narrowing the uncertainties in risk projections. Methodologies for evaluation of space environments, radiation quality, and organ doses to evaluate limits are discussed, and current projections for lunar and Mars missions are described.

Slaba T.C., Blattnig S.R., Badavi F.F.

The deterministic transport code HZETRN was developed for research scientists and design engineers studying the effects of space radiation on astronauts and instrumentation protected by various shielding materials and structures. In this work, several aspects of code verification are examined. First, a detailed derivation of the light particle (A= 4) numerical marching algorithms used in HZETRN is given. References are given for components of the derivation that already exist in the literature, and discussions are given for details that may have been absent in the past. The present paper provides a complete description of the numerical methods currently used in the code and is identified as a key component of the verification process. Next, a new numerical method for light particle transport is presented, and improvements to the heavy ion transport algorithm are discussed. A summary of round-off error is also given, and the impact of this error on previously predicted exposure quantities is shown. Finally, a coupled convergence study is conducted by refining the discretization parameters (step-size and energy grid-size). From this study, it is shown that past efforts in quantifying the numerical error in HZETRN were hindered by single precision calculations and computational resources. It is determined that almost all of the discretization error in HZETRN is caused by the use of discretization parameters that violate a numerical convergence criterion related to charged target fragments below 50AMeV. Total discretization errors are given for the old and new algorithms to 100g/cm^2 in aluminum and water, and the improved accuracy of the new numerical methods is demonstrated. Run time comparisons between the old and new algorithms are given for one, two, and three layer slabs of 100g/cm^2 of aluminum, polyethylene, and water. The new algorithms are found to be almost 100 times faster for solar particle event simulations and almost 10 times faster for galactic cosmic ray simulations.

Rodriguez J.V., Onsager T.G., Mazur J.E.

[1] Since 1998, the GOES system has made eastward and westward observations of multi-MeV solar proton fluxes. The gyrocenters of the fluxes observed looking westward (eastward) lie outside (inside) geostationary orbit. Due to this “east-west effect,” eastward observations of 4.2–82 MeV protons vary with respect to their westward equivalents. At times of high solar wind dynamic pressure (Pdyn > 10 nPa), the “inside” and “outside” fluxes are approximately equal. As Pdyn decreases to ∼1 nPa and the ring current decreases, the “inside” fluxes decrease as much as an order of magnitude with respect to the “outside” fluxes. Under low Pdyn, the “inside” fluxes exhibit short-lived (1–3 hr) increases, sometimes to the levels of the “outside” fluxes, during periods of enhanced AE index activity. This association suggests that magnetotail topologies associated with substorms enhance the access of solar protons to lower L shells under low Pdyn.

Mertens C.J., Kress B.T., Wiltberger M., Blattnig S.R., Slaba T.S., Solomon S.C., Engel M.

[1] We present initial results from the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionizing Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model during the Halloween 2003 superstorm. The objective of NAIRAS is to produce global, real-time, data-driven predictions of ionizing radiation for archiving and assessing the biologically harmful radiation exposure levels at commercial airline altitudes. We have conducted a case study of radiation exposure during a high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) event in October 2003. The purpose of the case study is to quantify the important influences of the storm time and quiet time magnetospheric magnetic field on high-latitude SEP atmospheric radiation exposure. The Halloween 2003 superstorm is an ideal event to study magnetospheric influences on atmospheric radiation exposure since this event was accompanied by a major magnetic storm which was one of the largest of solar cycle 23. We find that neglecting geomagnetic storm effects during SEP events can underestimate the high-latitude radiation exposure from nearly 15% to over a factor of 2, depending on the flight path relative to the magnetosphere open-closed boundary.

Hu S., Barzilla J.E., Núñez M., Semones E.

As large solar energetic particle (SEP) events can add significant radiation dose to astronauts in a short period of time and even induce acute clinical responses during missions, they present a concern for manned space flight operation. To assist the operations team in modeling and monitoring organ doses and any possible acute radiation-induced risks to astronauts during SEP events in real time, ARRT (Acute Radiation Risks Tool) 1.0 has been developed and successfully tested for Artemis I mission. The ARRT 2.0 described in this work integrates an established SEP forecasting model – UMASEP-100, further enabling real-time dose prediction for the upcoming Artemis II and following missions. With the new module linking with UMASEP-100 outputs in real time, the total BFO doses of most significant events can be communicated at the time of onset and hours before the peak. This is based on a flux-dose formula identified from comparing UMASEP-100 results with transport calculation for the events during 1994-2013 and validated with events outside that period. ARRT 2.0 also shows capability to distinguish minor events from significant ones to screen false alarms that will cause disruptions for space activities. This improvement provides additional information for operational teams to make timely decisions in contingent scenarios of severe SEP events to mitigate radiation exposure.

Hu S., Semones E.

For several decades, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) series have provided both real-time and historical data for radiation exposure estimation and solar proton radiation environment modelling. Recently, several groups conducted calibration studies that significantly reduced the uncertainties on the response of GOES proton detectors, thus improving the reliability of the spectral observations of solar energetic particle events. In this work, the long-established Band function fitting set for past ground level enhancements (GLEs) and their recent revision are used as references to estimate the best matching energies of proton channels of GOES 6–16, with emphasis on comparing with previous calibration studies on the high energetic proton measurements. The calculated energies for different missions in the same series (GOES 8, 10, 11) show overall consistency but with small variations, and differences among missions of different series are noticeable for measurements crossing the past three solar cycles, though the results are sensitive to the method used to subtract background fluxes. The discrepancy and agreement with previous calibration efforts are demonstrated with other independent analyses. It is verified that the integral channel P11 of GOES 6–16 can be reliably used as a differential proton channel with an effective energy of about 1 GeV. Therefore, the multi-decade in situ measurements of the GOES series can be utilized with more extensive energy coverage to improve space radiation environment models.

Hu S., Monadjemi S., Barzilla J.E., Semones E.

Hu S., Barzilla J.E., Semones E.

As more exploration spaceflights are planned to travel beyond the protective Earth magnetosphere to deep space destinations, acute health risks due to possible high radiation doses during severe Solar Particle Events (SPEs) are of greater concern to mission planners and management teams. It is expected that some degree of Acute Radiation Syndromes (ARS) symptoms may be observed, but the specific list of health risks that are relevant to exploration missions has been ambiguous and debatable in the past. This mini-review gives a brief summary of the features of radiation exposure if astronauts encounter severe SPEs beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), the evidence of ARS radiobiological studies at exposure levels close to recommended limits, and the shortcomings of previous dose projection approaches for ARS risk assessment. Some ARS biomathematical models, particularly those pertinent to the dose ranges that severe SPEs beyond LEO could generate, are reviewed and evaluated, focusing on their capability to predict the incidence of performance incapacitation and time-phased health effects with subsequent medical care recommendations. Using onboard active dosimeter input for estimating organ doses and likely clinical outcomes for SPEs in real time, a new strategy for ARS assessment and mitigation is described to cope with the potential threats of severe SPEs for planned deep space missions.

Sato T., Kataoka R., Shiota D., Kubo Y., Ishii M., Yasuda H., Miyake S., Miyoshi Y., Ueno H., Nagamatsu A.

Real-time estimation of cosmic-ray fluxes on satellite orbits is one of the greatest challenges in space weather research. Therefore, we develop a system for nowcasting and forecasting the galactic cosmic ray (GCR) and solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes at any location in the magnetosphere and ionosphere during ground-level enhancement (GLE) events. It is an extended version of the WArning System for AVIation Exposure to SEP (WASAVIES), which can determine event profiles by using real-time data of the count rates of several neutron monitors (NMs) at the ground level and high-energy proton fluxes observed by Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) satellites. The extended version, called WASAVIES-EO, can calculate the GCR and SEP fluxes outside a satellite based on its two-line element (TLE) data. Moreover, organ absorbed-dose and dose-equivalent rates of astronauts in the International Space Station (ISS) can be estimated using the system, considering its shielding effect. The accuracy of WASAVIES-EO was validated based on the dose rates measured in ISS, as well as based on high-energy proton fluxes observed by POES satellites during large GLEs that have occurred in the 21st century. Agreement between the nowcast and forecast dose rates in ISS, especially in terms of their temporal structures, indicates the usefulness of the developed system for future mission operations.