Real-time dose prediction for Artemis missions

Whitman K., Egeland R., Richardson I.G., Allison C., Quinn P., Barzilla J., Kitiashvili I., Sadykov V., Bain H.M., Dierckxsens M., Mays M.L., Tadesse T., Lee K.T., Semones E., Luhmann J.G., et. al.

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars. Thus, it is critical to improve the scientific understanding of SEP events and use this understanding to develop and improve SEP forecasting capabilities to support operations. Many SEP models exist or are in development using a wide variety of approaches and with differing goals. These include computationally intensive physics-based models, fast and light empirical models, machine learning-based models, and mixed-model approaches. The aim of this paper is to summarize all of the SEP models currently developed in the scientific community, including a description of model approach, inputs and outputs, free parameters, and any published validations or comparisons with data.

Stoffle N.N., Campbell-Ricketts T., Castro A., Gaza R., Zeitlin C., George S., Abdelmelek M., Schram A.

The Hybrid Electronic Radiation Assessor (HERA) system is a Timepix-based ionizing radiation detector built for NASA Exploration-class crewed missions. The HERA performs data analysis on-system and generates telemetry messages for ingestion, display, and relay by the spacecraft. Several iterations of the hardware have been flown aboard the International Space Station as payloads to test system operation and gain experience with the hardware in the space radiation environment. The HERA system and its payload operations are described, and data collected by the various HERA systems are presented.

Hu S., Semones E.

For several decades, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) series have provided both real-time and historical data for radiation exposure estimation and solar proton radiation environment modelling. Recently, several groups conducted calibration studies that significantly reduced the uncertainties on the response of GOES proton detectors, thus improving the reliability of the spectral observations of solar energetic particle events. In this work, the long-established Band function fitting set for past ground level enhancements (GLEs) and their recent revision are used as references to estimate the best matching energies of proton channels of GOES 6–16, with emphasis on comparing with previous calibration studies on the high energetic proton measurements. The calculated energies for different missions in the same series (GOES 8, 10, 11) show overall consistency but with small variations, and differences among missions of different series are noticeable for measurements crossing the past three solar cycles, though the results are sensitive to the method used to subtract background fluxes. The discrepancy and agreement with previous calibration efforts are demonstrated with other independent analyses. It is verified that the integral channel P11 of GOES 6–16 can be reliably used as a differential proton channel with an effective energy of about 1 GeV. Therefore, the multi-decade in situ measurements of the GOES series can be utilized with more extensive energy coverage to improve space radiation environment models.

Núñez M.

The prediction of solar energetic particle (SEP) events may help to improve the mitigation of adverse effects on humans and technology in space. UMASEP (University of Málaga Solar particle Event Predictor) is an empirical model scheme that predicts SEP events. This scheme is based on a dual-model approach. The first model predicts well-connected events by using an improved lag-correlation algorithm for analyzing soft X-ray (SXR) and differential proton fluxes to estimate empirically the Sun–Earth magnetic connectivity. The second model predicts poorly connected events by analyzing the evolution of differential proton fluxes. This study presents the evaluation of UMASEP-10 version 2, a tool based on the aforementioned scheme for predicting all >10 MeV SEP events, including those without associated flare. The evaluation of this tool is presented in terms of the probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR) and average warning time (AWT). The best performance was achieved for the solar cycle 24 (i.e., 2008–2019), obtaining a POD of 91.1% (41/45), a FAR of 12.8% (6/47) and an AWT of 2 h 46 min. These results show that UMASEP-10 version 2 obtains a high POD and low FAR mainly because it is able to detect true Sun–Earth magnetic connections.

Hu S., Monadjemi S., Barzilla J.E., Semones E.

Mertens C.J., Slaba T.C., Hu S.

Raukunen O., Vainio R., Tylka A.J., Dietrich W.F., Jiggens P., Heynderickx D., Dierckxsens M., Crosby N., Ganse U., Siipola R.

Solar energetic particles (SEPs) constitute an important component of the radiation environment in interplanetary space. Accurate modeling of SEP events is crucial for the mitigation of radiation hazards in spacecraft design. In this study we present two new statistical models of high energy solar proton fluences based on ground level enhancement (GLE) observations during solar cycles 19–24. As the basis of our modeling, we utilize a four parameter double power law function (known as the Band function) fits to integral GLE fluence spectra in rigidity. In the first model, the integral and differential fluences for protons with energies between 10 MeV and 1 GeV are calculated using the fits, and the distributions of the fluences at certain energies are modeled with an exponentially cut-off power law function. In the second model, we use a more advanced methodology: by investigating the distributions and relationships of the spectral fit parameters we find that they can be modeled as two independent and two dependent variables. Therefore, instead of modeling the fluences separately at different energies, we can model the shape of the fluence spectrum. We present examples of modeling results and show that the two methodologies agree well except for a short mission duration (1 year) at low confidence level. We also show that there is a reasonable agreement between our models and three well-known solar proton models (JPL, ESP and SEPEM), despite the differences in both the modeling methodologies and the data used to construct the models.

Núñez M., Reyes-Santiago P.J., Malandraki O.E.

A tool for predicting the occurrence of Ground Level Enhancement (GLE) events using the UMASEP scheme [Nunez, 2011, 2015] is presented. This real-time tool, called HESPERIA UMASEP-500, is based on the detection of the magnetic connection, along which protons arrive in the near-Earth environment, by estimating the lag-correlation between the time derivatives of 1-minute soft X-ray flux (SXR) and 1-minute near-Earth proton fluxes observed by the GOES satellites. Unlike current GLE warning systems, this tool can predict GLE events before the detection by any neutron monitor (NM) station. The prediction performance measured for the period from 1986 to 2016 is presented for two consecutive periods, because of their notable difference in performance. For the 2000-2016 period, this prediction tool obtained a probability of detection (POD) of 53.8% (7 of 13 GLE events), a false alarm ratio (FAR) of 30.0%, and average warning times (AWT) of 8 min with respect to the first NM station's alert and 15 min to the GLE Alert Plus's warning. We have tested the model by replacing the GOES proton data with SOHO/EPHIN proton data, and the results are similar in terms of POD, FAR and AWT for the same period. The paper also presents a comparison with a GLE warning system. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under agreement No 637324.

Hu S., Zeitlin C., Atwell W., Fry D., Barzilla J.E., Semones E.

It is a delicate task to accurately assess the impact of solar particle events (SPEs) on future long-duration human exploration missions. In the past, researchers have used several functional forms to fit satellite data for radiation exposure estimation. In this work we present a segmental power law interpolating algorithm to stream satellite data and get time series of proton spectra, which can be used to derive dosimetric quantities for any short period during which a single SPE or multiple SPEs occur. Directly using the corrected High Energy Proton and Alpha Detector fluxes of GOES, this method interpolates the intensity spectrum of a typical SPE to hundreds of MeV and extrapolates to the GeV level as long as sufficient particles are recorded in the high-energy sensors. The high-energy branch of the May 2012 SPE is consistent with the Band functional fitting, which is calibrated with ground level measurement. Modeling simulations indicate that the input spectrum of an SPE beyond 100 MeV is the major contributor for dose estimation behind the normal shielding thickness of spacecraft. Applying this method to the three SPEs that occurred in 2012 generates results consistent with two sets of in situ measurements, demonstrating that this approach could be a way to perform real-time dose estimation. This work also indicates that the galactic cosmic ray dose rate is important for accurately modeling the temporal profile of radiation exposure during an SPE.

Slaba T.C., Wilson J.W., Badavi F.F., Reddell B.D., Bahadori A.A.

A computationally efficient 3DHZETRN code with enhanced neutron and light ion (Z ≤ 2) propagation was recently developed for complex, inhomogeneous shield geometry described by combinatorial objects. Comparisons were made between 3DHZETRN results and Monte Carlo (MC) simulations at locations within the combinatorial geometry, and it was shown that 3DHZETRN agrees with the MC codes to the extent they agree with each other. In the present report, the 3DHZETRN code is extended to enable analysis in ray-trace geometry. This latest extension enables the code to be used within current engineering design practices utilizing fully detailed vehicle and habitat geometries. Through convergence testing, it is shown that fidelity in an actual shield geometry can be maintained in the discrete ray-trace description by systematically increasing the number of discrete rays used. It is also shown that this fidelity is carried into transport procedures and resulting exposure quantities without sacrificing computational efficiency.

Wilson J.W., Slaba T.C., Badavi F.F., Reddell B.D., Bahadori A.A.

Experimental data are presented which have a bearing on the susceptibility of astronauts to infectious diseases. These experiments include the observation of growth by two bacteria in Biosatellite 2, in which higher mean densities were attained than in earth-based controls. In addition, weightlessness combined with the special environment of a space vessel may affect the physiology of the astronauts. Earth-based studies in closed chambers were carried out under a variety of conditions with regard to pressure and oxygen content. One notable result was the transfer of micro-organisms from subject to subject. Comparative experiments were carried out in Antarctica and it was shown that the tests in closed chambers differed markedly from the Antarctica experience. The objectives and procedures of microbiological tests of the Gemini and Apollo programs are outlined.

Núñez M.

A new model for predicting the occurrence of >100 MeV solar energetic proton (SEP) events and the first hours of the >100 MeV integral proton flux is presented. This model uses a novel approach based on the lag correlation between strong positive derivatives of X-ray flux and proton flux. The new model has been validated with data from January 1994 to September 2013, obtaining a probability of detection of all >100 MeV SEP events of 80.85%, a false alarm ratio of 29.62%, and an average warning time of 1 h and 6 min. The model identifies the associated flare and active region. Currently, there is no other automatic empirical or physics-based system able to predict SEP events of energies in the interval of 100 MeV to ~430 MeV (lower GLE cutoff according to Clem and Dorman (2000)). This paper also proposes the combined use of the new prediction model and the existing one for predicting >10 MeV SEP events. The combined SEP prediction models have been developed to improve mitigation of adverse effects on near-Earth and interplanetary missions.

Shea M.A., Smart D.F.

Solar proton events can adversely affect space and ground-based systems. Ground-level events are a subset of solar proton events that have a harder spectrum than average solar proton events and are detectable on Earth’s surface by cosmic radiation ionization chambers, muon detectors, and neutron monitors. This paper summarizes the space weather effects associated with ground-level solar proton events during the 23rd solar cycle. These effects include communication and navigation systems, spacecraft electronics and operations, space power systems, manned space missions, and commercial aircraft operations. The major effect of ground-level events that affect manned spacecraft operations is increased radiation exposure. The primary effect on commercial aircraft operations is the loss of high frequency communication and, at extreme polar latitudes, an increase in the radiation exposure above that experienced from the background galactic cosmic radiation. Calculations of the maximum potential aircraft polar route exposure for each ground-level event of the 23rd solar cycle are presented. The space weather effects in October and November 2003 are highlighted together with on-going efforts to utilize cosmic ray neutron monitors to predict high energy solar proton events, thus providing an alert so that system operators can possibly make adjustments to vulnerable spacecraft operations and polar aircraft routes.

Hu S., Smirnova O.A., Cucinotta F.A.

A biomathematical model of lymphopoiesis is described and used to analyze the lymphocyte changes observed in the blood of exposed victims in radiation accidents. The coarse-grained architecture of cellular replication and production and implicit cellular regulation mechanisms used in this model make it straightforward to incorporate various radiation conditions. Model simulations with reported absorbed doses as inputs are shown to qualitatively and quantitatively describe a wide range of accidental data in vastly different scenarios. In addition, the absolute lymphocyte counts and the depletion rate constants calculated by this model show good correlation with two widely recognized empirical methods for early dose assessment. This demonstrates the potential to use the biophysical model as an alternative method for the assessment of radiation injury in the case of large-scale radiation disaster. The physiological assumptions underlying the model are also discussed, which may provide a putative mechanism for some biodosimetric tools that use the peripheral blood cell counts as markers of radiation impairment.

Núñez M.

Ground-Level Enhancements (GLEs) pose a potential hazard for crew and passengers on polar routes. The accurate estimation of the integral proton flux of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events is crucial for assessing the expected radiation dose. This paper describes a new approach that predicts the occurrence of GLEs and the associated >500 MeV intensity using proton and electron data. The new approach utilizes the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOESs) for proton observations and the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite for electron observations. Núñez et al. proposed a GLE occurrence predictor called the High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis (HESPERIA) University of Málaga Solar particle Event Predictor (UMASEP-500), which did not include a model for predicting the >500 MeV integral proton intensity. This paper presents a comparison in terms of the GLE event occurrence between the HESPERIA UMASEP-500 and a new approach called UMASEP-500. Although the new approach shows a slightly better critical success index (CSI), which combines the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR), the difference is not statistically significant. The main advantage of the new UMASEP-500 is its ability to predict the expected >500 MeV proton intensity. This study provides initial insight into a new era of electron and proton telescopes that will be available at L1 in the coming years.