Crime Rates in a Pandemic: the Largest Criminological Experiment in History

Ashby M.P.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to substantial changes in the daily activities of millions of Americans, with many businesses and schools closed, public events cancelled and states introducing stay-at-home orders. This article used police-recorded open crime data to understand how the frequency of common types of crime changed in 16 large cities across the United States in the early months of 2020. Seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models of crime in previous years were used to forecast the expected frequency of crime in 2020 in the absence of the pandemic. The forecasts from these models were then compared to the actual frequency of crime during the early months of the pandemic. There were no significant changes in the frequency of serious assaults in public or (contrary to the concerns of policy makers) any change to the frequency of serious assaults in residences. In some cities, there were reductions in residential burglary but little change in non-residential burglary. Thefts of motor vehicles decreased in some cities while there were diverging patterns of thefts from motor vehicles. These results are used to make suggestions for future research into the relationships between the coronavirus pandemic and different crimes.

Ashby M.P.

The coronavirus pandemic poses multiple challenges for policing, including the need to continue responding to calls from the public. Several contingency plans warned police to expect a large and potentially overwhelming increase in demand from the public during a pandemic, but (to the author's knowledge) there is no empirical work on police demand during a major public-health emergency. This study used calls-for-service data from ten large cities in the United States to analyse how calls for service changed during the early months of the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak, compared to forecasts of call volume based on data from previous years. Contrary to previous warnings, overall the number of calls went down during the early weeks of the pandemic. There were substantial reductions in specific call types, such as traffic collisions, and significant increases others, such as calls to dead bodies. Other types of call, particularly those relating to crime and order maintenance, continued largely as before. Changes in the frequency of different call types present challenges to law enforcement agencies, particularly since many will themselves be suffering from reduced staffing due to the pandemic. Understanding changes to calls in detail will allow police leaders to put in place evidence-based plans to ensure they can continue to serve the public.

Nivette A., Ribeaud D., Murray A.L., Steinhoff A., Bechtiger L., Hepp U., Shanahan L., Eisner M.

Background: Do young adults have low compliance rates with public health measures aimed at curbing the spread of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)? This paper leverages a prospective-longitudinal cohort study with data before and during the pandemic to examine this question.Methods: Data came from an ongoing cohort study (n=737). Non-compliance with public health measures and concurrent correlates were measured at age 22. Antecedent sociodemographic, social, and psychological factors were measured at ages 15-20.Findings: Young adults generally complied with COVID-19 public health measures, although compliance with some measures (e.g., cleaning/disinfecting mobile phones, standing 1.5-2 meters apart) was relatively lower. Non-compliance, especially with hygiene-related measures, was more prevalent in males, and in individuals with higher education, higher SES, and a non- migrant background. Non-compliance was associated with “antisocial potential,” including pre-pandemic low acceptance of moral rules, legal cynicism, low shame/guilt, low self-control, engagement in delinquent behaviors, and association with delinquent peers. Young adults with low trust, including in the government’s measures for fighting the virus, also complied less.Interpretation: In order to increase voluntary compliance with COVID-19 measures, public health campaigns should implement strategies that foster moral obligation and trust in authorities, or leverage trustworthy individuals in the community to disseminate information. For young adults with low self-control, self-monitoring, environmental restructuring, or nudging may increase compliance. Long-term investments into integrating antisocial youth into society may decrease rule-breaking behaviors, including during pandemics when compliance saves lives.

Gerell M., kardell J., Kindgren J.

The covid-19 disease has a large impact on life across the globe, and this could potentially include impacts on crime. The present short report describes how crime has changed in Sweden during ten weeks after the government started to implement interventions to reduce spread of the disease. The first major interventions in Sweden were implemented in the end of week 11 in the year 2020, and we analyze police reported crimes through week 21. Descriptive statistics are provided relative to expected levels with 95 % confidence intervals for eight crime types. We find that total crime, assaults, pickpocketing and burglary have decreased significantly, personal robberies and narcotics crime are unchanged. Vandalism possibly increased somewhat but is hard to draw any firm conclusions on. The reductions are fairly small for most crime types, in the 5-20 % range, with pickpocketing being the biggest exception noting a 59 % drop relative to expected levels.

Mohler G., Bertozzi A.L., Carter J., Short M.B., Sledge D., Tita G.E., Uchida C.D., Brantingham P.J.

Governments have implemented social distancing measures to address the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The measures include instructions that individuals maintain social distance when in public, school closures, limitations on gatherings and business operations, and instructions to remain at home. Social distancing may have an impact on the volume and distribution of crime. Crimes such as residential burglary may decrease as a byproduct of increased guardianship over personal space and property. Crimes such as domestic violence may increase because of extended periods of contact between potential offenders and victims. Understanding the impact of social distancing on crime is critical for ensuring the safety of police and government capacity to deal with the evolving crisis. Understanding how social distancing policies impact crime may also provide insights into whether people are complying with public health measures. Examination of the most recently available data from both Los Angeles, CA, and Indianapolis, IN, shows that social distancing has had a statistically significant impact on a few specific crime types. However, the overall effect is notably less than might be expected given the scale of the disruption to social and economic life.

Payne J.L., Morgan A.

At the time of writing, there was 2.9 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 200,000 deaths worldwide. Not since the Spanish Flu in 1918 has the world experienced such a widespread pandemic and this has motivated many countries across globe to take a series of unprecedented actions in an effort to curb the spread and impact of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Among these government and regulatory interventions includes unprecedented domestic and international travel restrictions as well as a raft of stay-at-home and social distancing regulations. Each has left criminologists wondering what impact this will have on crime in both the short- and long-term. In this study, we examine officially recorded violent crime rates for the month of March, 2020, as reported for the state of Queensland, Australia. We use ARIMA modeling techniques to compute six-month-ahead forecasts of common assault, serious assault, sexual offence and domestic violence order breach rates and then compare these forecasts (and their 95\% confidence intervals) with the observed data for March 2020. We conclude that the observed rates of reported violent offending across Queensland were not--at least not so far--significantly different from what was expected given the history of each offence series.

Shayegh S., Malpede M.

As coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is spreading around the world, many national and local governments have imposed social restrictive measures to limit the spread of the virus. Such quarantine measures in different cities across the world have brought a new trend in public safety improvement and crime reduction. Using daily crime reports in the US and European major cities, the aim of this project is to evaluate the effects of quarantine and shelter-in-place policies on different crime categories. We adopt a difference in difference strategy to evaluate the change in crime rates. Early results from Oakland and San Francisco in the U.S. suggest a drop by about 40\% across the communities and crime categories in both cities. While theft, homicide, and traffic accidents have fallen sharply, domestic violence incidents show no sign of reduction from our early observations. These trends although promising a glimpse of positive outcome for the community during the outbreak, may not have a lasting impact in the long term.

Stickle B., Hicks M., Stickle A., Hutchinson Z.

Machimbarrena J.M., Calvete E., Fernández-González L., Álvarez-Bardón A., Álvarez-Fernández L., González-Cabrera J.

The advance of digital media has created risks that affect the bio-psycho-social well-being of adolescents. Some of these risks are cyberbullying, cyber dating abuse, sexting, online grooming and problematic Internet use. These risks have been studied individually or through associations of some of them but they have not been explored conjointly. The main objective is to determine the comorbidity between the described Internet risks and to identify the profiles of victimized adolescents. An analytical and cross-sectional study with 3212 participants (46.3% males) from 22 Spanish schools was carried out. Mean age was 13.92 ± 1.44 years (range 11–21). Assessment tools with adequate standards of reliability and validity were used. The main results indicate that the most prevalent single risk is cyberbullying victimization (30.27%). The most prevalent two-risk associations are cyberbullying-online grooming (12.61%) and cyberbullying-sexting (5.79%). The three-risk combination of cyberbullying-sexting-grooming (7.12%) is highlighted, while 5.49% of the adolescents present all the risks. In addition, four profiles are distinguished, with the profile Sexualized risk behaviour standing out, with high scores in grooming and sexting and low scores in the rest of the risks. Determining the comorbidity of risks is useful for clinical and educational interventions, as it can provide information about additional risks.

Krohn M.D., Thornberry T.P., Gibson C.L., Baldwin J.M.

Brantingham P., Brantingham P.

Cohen L.E., Felson M.

Kafafian M., de Vries I., Farrell A., Asiedu C., Bouchard E.

We examined profiles of young people who have been referred to a state child serving agency concerned with identifying commercial sexual exploitation of children (CSE) in the Northeast of the United States before and since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using comprehensive data from this state child serving agency, our study used latent class analyses and regression analyses to explore changing profiles of young people referred for concerns of CSE since the pandemic. A profile of referred minors whose social settings included CSE-involved people was significantly less common since the onset of the pandemic compared to before the onset of the pandemic. Conversely, a profile of young people with risky online experiences (e.g., sharing sexually explicit media) was significantly more common among CSE referrals since the pandemic began. While extant literature warns of CSE risk in online settings, fewer cases of CSE were identified since the onset of the pandemic. Given the growing importance of online settings and experiences during childhood, supplemental screening practices are needed to better assess the risk of CSE among young people in online settings.

Kazemi Asl Z., Rahmanian F., Rastegari Z., Ghaemi S.Z.

This study was aimed to investigate the prevalence of domestic violence against men and its effect on marital satisfaction during the Covid-19 pandemic. This cross-sectional study was conducted in the period 2019 to 2020 on 233 men of Estahban city, Iran, who were selected using the convenient sampling method. Data collection instruments were the Demographic Characteristics Checklist, the Domestic Violence Against Men Questionnaire, and the Enrich Marital Satisfaction Questionnaire. Pearson’s correlation analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used for data analysis. The mean scores of the violence and marital satisfaction were 321.08 ± 25.9 and 235 ± 0.13, respectively, and these two variables were significantly correlated ( r  = .215; p  < .001). In addition, the regression analysis showed that the mean score of violence significantly predicted marital satisfaction ( p  < .05). The study finding showed that the Iranian men faced with a moderate level of domestic violence during the Covid-19 pandemic; therefore, the study concludes that various institutions should design and implement effective strategies to prevent the occurrence of domestic violence and reduce its negative effects on the family.

Schumacher J.E., Ahsan A., Simpler A.H., Natoli A.P., Cain B.J.

Abstract Background Conducting research within a carceral health care context offers a unique view into the nature of drug use among arrestees with potential to identify and prevent drug use consequences. The purpose of this study was to characterize the nature and extent of drug use among first-time jail arrestees to inform detection and treatment. Methods This study utilized a naturalistic research design to collect de-identified urine drug screens (UDS), jail characteristics, and arrestee demographic variables among arrestees indicating drug use from 25 jails across the United States in 2023 through a confidential data sharing agreement with NaphCare, Inc. using its proprietary electronic health record operating system. Descriptive statistics were used to detail the features of the dataset, Pearson’s chi-square tests of independence were performed to statistically analyze associations between UDS results and jail characteristics and arrestee demographics, and significant chi-square test results were further investigated by examining standardized residuals to clarify the nature and significance of within-group differences in proportions. Results Of the 43,553 UDS cases comprising the final sample (28.8% of total arrestees), 74.8% (32,561) were positive for one or more drugs, and 25.2% of UDS cases were negative for all drugs. Among those who tested positive, 69.0% were positive for cannabis, 54.8% for stimulants, 29.6% for opioids, and 12.4% for sedatives. Arrestees were positive for multiple drugs half the time, with combinations of cannabis, stimulants, and opioids most common. Significant associations between drug use and both jail characteristics and arrestee demographics were found. Conclusions Though drug use is not a recent phenomenon, the lethality potential of the drugs being used today is relatively new. Arrestees with positive urine drug screens are at heightened risk of adverse outcome due to sudden cessation of substance use. Findings highlight the need for objective clinical data to guide acute treatment of individuals at risk of withdrawing while detained.

McNeeley S., Stutzenberger A.

Zheng Z., He Y., Jiang X., Wu H., Sheng S.

Miró-Llinares F.

Abstract This chapter examines the complex relationship between digital leisure activities and crime patterns through the development and testing of a "digital leisure hypothesis." Drawing on routine activity theory and empirical data from multiple sources, the author argues that increased engagement with digital entertainment, particularly among youth, has contributed to significant shifts in criminal opportunities by altering how people spend their time. The study presents evidence of strong negative correlations between time spent on digital leisure activities and youth crime rates, particularly for offenses like vandalism and burglary. Using data from the American Time Use Survey and Bureau of Justice Statistics (1994-2016), the research demonstrates that higher rates of digitalization are associated with lower arrest rates, with effects being particularly pronounced among young people. The chapter also explores how the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated these trends by forcing rapid adoption of digital activities across all age groups. The author proposes a dual-effect model where digitalization simultaneously reduces opportunities for traditional street crime by keeping people indoors while creating new opportunities for cybercrime through increased online activity. This is supported by empirical analysis showing exponential growth in cyber-victimization correlating with increased digital technology adoption. The findings suggest that the relationship between digital leisure and crime is not a simple displacement effect, but rather reflects fundamental changes in routine activities and criminal opportunities. The chapter concludes by considering how these trends might evolve in a post-pandemic world, arguing that understanding the relationship between digital leisure and crime patterns will become increasingly crucial for criminological theory and crime prevention strategies.

Cohen N.D.

The potential impact of drought and low precipitation on crime rates is of growing importance in the era of worsening climate change. Evidence shows that drought and meteorological factors have impacts on the social interactions, familial behaviors, and economic opportunities of the communities affected. Informed by strain theories and displaced aggression, this study seeks to understand the relationship between drought levels and the incidence of violent crime across counties in California between 2010 and 2019. Using open-source data, the current study examines if changes in monthly drought levels are associated with the incidence of violent crime, paying particular attention to the role of agriculture in California counties and how the impact of drought accumulates overtime. Our findings suggest a small, positive relationship between drought and violent crime incidence in California counties and that this impact is lagged rather than immediate. Additionally, we do not find a difference between agriculture and non-agricultural counties in terms of the impact of drought nor do the effects of drought compound within counties.

Zheng Z., Huang S., Ning Y., Mao Y., Wang C.

Demir M., Park S.

This study tested the effect of COVID-19 restrictions on calls for service related to drugs, alcohol, and mental health. The calls for service regarding these outcomes before, during, and after COVID-19 restrictions were aggregated into daily counts (N = 3,213). Two different measures, including count and rate, were used for these outcomes. The results of the multivariate analyses, which included negative binomial regression for the count measures, ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for the rate measures, and daily interrupted time series analyses, indicated that calls related to drugs and mental health significantly increased during the COVID-19 restrictions. However, while alcohol-related calls also increased, this rise was not statistically significant. The limitations and implications of the study are discussed.

Goncalves V.S., Stafford M.C.

Wijekoon K.K., Warusavitharana E.J.

Turanjanin V.

The pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been ongoing for over three years. After the initial months of confusion and searching for different solutions in the fight against this disease, several different vaccines were developed. Although they were eagerly awaited, social networks were flooded with negative and discouraging comments about vaccines. Citizens’ views on this issue varied not only from country to country but also within the same country. At the same time, a certain number of officials in some countries contributed to a negative view of vaccines. Therefore, the first goal of this paper is to review the results of research conducted in different countries and then analyze the results of research conducted in Serbia. The sample consisted of 301 respondents. The results of the research show that the majority of respondents refused to be vaccinated, as they do not believe in the effectiveness or safety of the vaccine against COVID-19, nor do they trust the state authorities in their fight against the pandemic.

Wang S.K., Chang K., Chang Y.

Johnson S.D.

AbstractTraditional crime has been falling for some time in most countries. However, developing technologies and our use of them are creating new opportunities for offending. For example, estimates from the Crime Survey of England and Wales indicate that in the UK, online fraud and related offences account for as many crimes as do “traditional” offences. To date, academia, law enforcement and governments have been reactive both in terms of identifying new and emerging forms of offending and in developing approaches to address them. In this paper, I will discuss the future crime agenda, and how futures thinking can help identify future crime opportunities and security threats including online fraud, crimes involving artificial intelligence, and crime in the metaverse. The paper will close with a discussion of the implications for theory and crime prevention.

Feng Y., Li K., Wang Z.

Utilizing 336 documents of administrative punishment decisions on fabricating COVID-19 rumors in Zhejiang province between December 2019 and December 2022, this article explores the effects of three sets of factors on the severity of administrative punishment. Empirical results suggest that administrative punishment for COVID-19 rumors is an ad hoc administrative measure only utilized in a state of emergency when the Chinese government implemented the “dynamic zero-case” policy. While it did not directly contravene existing Chinese laws, such a type of punishment practice represented the expansive trend of administrative punishment power. It caused tension with the current legal system. The expansion of administrative power manifested through the broadened scope of punishable false speech, lowered criteria of public order disruption, and lowered punishable criteria of offenders’ intent. Given that the Chinese society (as any other societies) periodically enters a state of emergency, it is necessary to consider how to maintain a dynamic balance between the abnormal exercise of administrative power and the protection of individual’s basic rights when the emergency reappears. This article advances the understanding of the dynamics surrounding administrative punishment for rumors and furnishes policy and legal recommendations for employing administrative measures in rumor control during national emergencies.