When Populist Friends Abroad Hurt You at Home: How Populist Leaders in Italy and the Netherlands Coped with the Russian-Ukrainian War

The Russian-Ukrainian war that started on 24 February 2022 embarrassed several of Russia’s political friends in Europe. Until then, Russia had enjoyed the sympathy of quite some politicians in Europe, particularly of right-wing populists. In this chapter, we look at right-wing populist leaders in Italy and the Netherlands and investigate the extent to which the Russian-Ukrainian war has made them redefine their position toward Russia and its President, Vladimir Putin. We theorize the conditions under which leaders are open to change, even reverse, their relative perspectives on international politics, drawing on the Comparative Foreign policy Analysis literature on cognitive beliefs and foreign policy change. We argue that right-wing populist leaders face cognitive dissonance because of the war and that any complete volte face on Russia would depend on their fear of losing their constituents’ support. The empirical analysis of the changes in the outlook on Russia of populist leaders in Italy and the Netherlands will assess our claims.