Nature

, volume 593 , issue 7857 , pages 74-82

Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise

Tamsin L. Edwards ¹

Sophie Nowicki ^{2, 3}

Ben Marzeion ^{4, 5}

REGINE HOCK ^{6, 7}

H. Goelzer ^{8, 9, 10}

Helene Seroussi ¹¹

N. C. Jourdain ¹²

Donald A. Slater ^{13, 14, 15}

Fiona E Turner ¹

Chris Smith ^{16, 17}

Christine McKenna ¹⁶

Erika Simon ²

Ayako Abe-Ouchi ¹⁸

Jonathan M. Gregory ^{19, 20}

Eric Larour ¹¹

William H. Lipscomb ²¹

Antony J Payne ²²

Andrew Shepherd ²³

C. Agosta ²⁴

Patrick Alexander ^{25, 26}

Torsten Albrecht ²⁷

Brian Anderson ²⁸

Xylar Asay-Davis ²⁹

Andy Aschwanden ⁶

Alice Barthel ²⁹

Andrew Bliss ³⁰

Reinhard Calov ²⁷

Christopher Chambers ³¹

Nicolas Champollion ^{4, 12}

Youngmin Choi ^{11, 32}

Richard Cullather ²

Joshua Cuzzone ¹¹

Christophe Dumas ²⁴

Denis Felikson ^{2, 33}

Xavier Fettweis ³⁴

K. Fujita ³⁵

Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi ^{36, 37}

Rupert Gladstone ³⁸

Nicholas R Golledge ²⁸

Ralf Greve ^{31, 39}

Tore Hattermann ^{40, 41}

M. Hoffman ²⁹

Angelika Humbert ^{42, 43}

Matthias Huss ^{44, 45, 46}

P. Huybrechts ⁴⁷

W. W. Immerzeel ⁴⁸

Thomas Kleiner ⁴²

Philip Kraaijenbrink ⁴⁸

Sébastien Le clec'h ⁴⁷

Victoria Lee ⁴⁹

Gunter R Leguy ²¹

Christopher M. Little ⁵⁰

Daniel P Lowry ⁵¹

Jan Hendrik Malles ^{4, 5}

Daniel F Martin ⁵²

F. Maussion ⁵³

Mathieu Morlighem ³²

James F Oneill ¹

Isabel J. Nias ^{2, 54}

Frank Pattyn ⁹

Tyler Pelle ³²

S. Price ²⁹

Aurélien Quiquet ²⁴

Valentina Radić ⁵⁵

Ronja Reese ²⁷

D. R. Rounce ^{6, 56}

M. Rückamp ⁴²

Akiko Sakai ³⁵

Courtney Shafer ⁵²

Nicole-Jeanne Schlegel ¹¹

S. R. Shannon ²²

Robin S. Smith ¹⁹

Fiammetta Straneo ¹³

Sainan Sun ⁹

Lev Tarasov ⁵⁷

Luke D. Trusel ⁵⁸

Jonas Van Breedam ⁴⁷

Roderik van de Wal ^{8, 48}

Michiel R. van den Broeke ⁸

Ricarda Winkelmann ^{27, 59}

Harry Zekollari ^{9, 44, 45, 60}

Chen Zhao ³⁷

Tong Zhang ^{29, 61}

Thomas Zwinger ⁶²

Hide authors affiliations Show authors affiliations: 62 affiliations

Department of Geography, King’s College London, London, UK |

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, USA |

Geology Department and RENEW Institute, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, USA |

⁴

Institute of Geography, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany |

⁵

MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany |

⁶

Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, USA |

⁷

Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway |

⁸

Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands |

⁹

Laboratoire de Glaciologie, Université libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium |

¹⁰

NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway |

¹¹

Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California institute of Technology, Pasadena, USA

California Institute of Technology

Jet Propulsion Laboratory

¹²

Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Université Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, Grenoble, France

Grenoble Alpes University

Institut polytechnique de Grenoble

¹³

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, USA

University of California, San Diego

Scripps Institution of Oceanography

¹⁴

School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK |

¹⁵

School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK |

¹⁶

Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK |

¹⁷

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria |

¹⁸

Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan |

¹⁹

National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK |

²⁰

MET Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK |

²¹

Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA |

²²

School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK |

²³

Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK |

²⁴

Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France

University of Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines

Université Paris-Saclay

Institut Pierre Simon Laplace

²⁵

Lamont–Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, USA |

²⁶

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, USA |

²⁷

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany |

²⁸

Antarctic Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand |

²⁹

Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National laboratory, Los Alamos, USA |

³⁰

Department of Anthropology and Geography, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA |

³¹

Institute of Low Temperature Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan |

³²

Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, USA |

³³

Universities Space Research Association, Goddard Earth Sciences Technology and Research Studies and Investigations, Columbia, USA |

³⁴

Laboratory of Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Liège, Liège, Belgium |

³⁵

Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan |

³⁶

Australian Antarctic Division, Kingston, Australia |

³⁷

Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia

University of Tasmania

Australian Antarctic Division

³⁸

Arctic Centre, University of Lapland, Rovaniemi, Finland |

³⁹

Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan |

⁴⁰

Norwegian Polar Institute, Tromsø, Norway |

⁴¹

Energy and Climate Group, Department of Physics and Technology, The Arctic University – University of Tromsø, Tromsø, Norway |

⁴²

Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- Und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven, Germany |

⁴³

Department of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany |

⁴⁴

Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland |

⁴⁵

Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape research (WSL), Birmensdorf, Switzerland |

⁴⁶

Department of GeoSciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland |

⁴⁷

Earth System Science and Departement Geografie, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium |

⁴⁸

Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands |

⁴⁹

Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK |

⁵⁰

Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Lexington, USA |

⁵¹

GNS SCience, Lower Hutt, New Zealand |

⁵²

Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, USA |

⁵³

Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria |

⁵⁴

School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK |

⁵⁵

Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada |

⁵⁶

Department of Civil and environmental engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, USA |

⁵⁷

Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland, St John’s, Canada |

⁵⁸

Department of Geography, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, USA |

⁵⁹

Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany |

⁶⁰

Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands |

⁶¹

State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China |

⁶²

CSC-IT Center for Science, Espoo, Finland |

Publication type: Journal Article

Publication date: 2021-05-05

Springer Nature

Nature

scimago Q1

wos Q1

SJR: 18.288

CiteScore: 78.1

Impact factor: 48.5

ISSN: 00280836, 14764687

DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y

Copy DOI

PubMed ID: 33953415

Multidisciplinary

Abstract

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2–8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained. Efficient statistical emulation of melting land ice under various climate scenarios to 2100 indicates a contribution from melting land ice to sea level increase of at least 13 centimetres sea level equivalent.

Found

1 citation

Vieira Rosemary

56 publications, 316 citations

h-index: 10

Universidade Federal Fluminense

Research interests

Antarctica

Sedimentology

1 citation

Chen Deliang

171 publications, 905 citations, 7 reviews

h-index: 18

University of Gothenburg

Tsinghua University

Dongguan University of Technology

Zhengzhou University

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Edwards T. L. et al. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise // Nature. 2021. Vol. 593. No. 7857. pp. 74-82.

GOST all authors (up to 50) Copy

Edwards T. L. et al. Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise // Nature. 2021. Vol. 593. No. 7857. pp. 74-82.

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BibTex (up to 50 authors) Copy

@article{2021_Edwards,

author = {Tamsin L. Edwards and Sophie Nowicki and Ben Marzeion and REGINE HOCK and H. Goelzer and Helene Seroussi and N. C. Jourdain and Donald A. Slater and Fiona E Turner and Chris Smith and Christine McKenna and Erika Simon and Ayako Abe-Ouchi and Jonathan M. Gregory and Eric Larour and William H. Lipscomb and Antony J Payne and Andrew Shepherd and C. Agosta and Patrick Alexander and Torsten Albrecht and Brian Anderson and Xylar Asay-Davis and Andy Aschwanden and Alice Barthel and Andrew Bliss and Reinhard Calov and Christopher Chambers and Nicolas Champollion and Youngmin Choi and Richard Cullather and Joshua Cuzzone and Christophe Dumas and Denis Felikson and Xavier Fettweis and K. Fujita and Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi and Rupert Gladstone and Nicholas R Golledge and Ralf Greve and Tore Hattermann and M. Hoffman and Angelika Humbert and Matthias Huss and P. Huybrechts and W. W. Immerzeel and Thomas Kleiner and Philip Kraaijenbrink and Sébastien Le clec'h and Victoria Lee and others},

title = {Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise},

journal = {Nature},

year = {2021},

volume = {593},

publisher = {Springer Nature},

month = {may},

url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y},

number = {7857},

pages = {74--82},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y}

}

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MLA Copy

Edwards, Tamsin L., et al. “Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise.” Nature, vol. 593, no. 7857, May. 2021, pp. 74-82. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03302-y.

Publisher

Springer Nature

Journal

Nature

scimago Q1

wos Q1

SJR

18.288

CiteScore

78.1

Impact factor

48.5

ISSN

00280836 (Print)

14764687 (Electronic)