Open Access
Open access
volume 8 issue 7 pages e020683

Framework to construct and interpret latent class trajectory modelling

Hannah Lennon 1, 2, 3
Kelly Scott 4, 5
Matthew Sperrin 2, 3
Iain Buchan 2, 3
Amanda J. Cross 6, 7
Michael Leitzmann 8, 9
Michael B. Cook 4, 5
Andrew G. Renehan 1, 2, 3, 10
1
 
Division of Cancer Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health
3
 
MRC Health eResearch Centre (HeRC), Division of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences
4
 
Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics
6
 
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
8
 
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine
Publication typeJournal Article
Publication date2018-07-07
scimago Q1
wos Q2
SJR1.016
CiteScore4.5
Impact factor2.3
ISSN20446055
General Medicine
Abstract
Objectives

Latent class trajectory modelling (LCTM) is a relatively new methodology in epidemiology to describe life-course exposures, which simplifies heterogeneous populations into homogeneous patterns or classes. However, for a given dataset, it is possible to derive scores of different models based on number of classes, model structure and trajectory property. Here, we rationalise a systematic framework to derive a ‘core’ favoured model.

Methods

We developed an eight-step framework: step 1: a scoping model; step 2: refining the number of classes; step 3: refining model structure (from fixed-effects through to a flexible random-effect specification); step 4: model adequacy assessment; step 5: graphical presentations; step 6: use of additional discrimination tools (‘degree of separation’; Elsensohn’s envelope of residual plots); step 7: clinical characterisation and plausibility; and step 8: sensitivity analysis. We illustrated these steps using data from the NIH-AARP cohort of repeated determinations of body mass index (BMI) at baseline (mean age: 62.5 years), and BMI derived by weight recall at ages 18, 35 and 50 years.

Results

From 288 993 participants, we derived a five-class model for each gender (men: 177 455; women: 111 538). From seven model structures, the favoured model was a proportional random quadratic structure (model F). Favourable properties were also noted for the unrestricted random quadratic structure (model G). However, class proportions varied considerably by model structure—concordance between models F and G were moderate (Cohen κ: men, 0.57; women, 0.65) but poor with other models. Model adequacy assessments, evaluations using discrimination tools, clinical plausibility and sensitivity analyses supported our model selection.

Conclusion

We propose a framework to construct and select a ‘core’ LCTM, which will facilitate generalisability of results in future studies.

Found 
Found 

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GOST |
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GOST Copy
Lennon H. et al. Framework to construct and interpret latent class trajectory modelling // BMJ Open. 2018. Vol. 8. No. 7. p. e020683.
GOST all authors (up to 50) Copy
Lennon H., Scott K., Sperrin M., Buchan I., Cross A. J., Leitzmann M., Cook M. B., Renehan A. G. Framework to construct and interpret latent class trajectory modelling // BMJ Open. 2018. Vol. 8. No. 7. p. e020683.
RIS |
Cite this
RIS Copy
TY - JOUR
DO - 10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020683
UR - https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020683
TI - Framework to construct and interpret latent class trajectory modelling
T2 - BMJ Open
AU - Lennon, Hannah
AU - Scott, Kelly
AU - Sperrin, Matthew
AU - Buchan, Iain
AU - Cross, Amanda J.
AU - Leitzmann, Michael
AU - Cook, Michael B.
AU - Renehan, Andrew G.
PY - 2018
DA - 2018/07/07
PB - BMJ
SP - e020683
IS - 7
VL - 8
PMID - 29982203
SN - 2044-6055
ER -
BibTex |
Cite this
BibTex (up to 50 authors) Copy
@article{2018_Lennon,
author = {Hannah Lennon and Kelly Scott and Matthew Sperrin and Iain Buchan and Amanda J. Cross and Michael Leitzmann and Michael B. Cook and Andrew G. Renehan},
title = {Framework to construct and interpret latent class trajectory modelling},
journal = {BMJ Open},
year = {2018},
volume = {8},
publisher = {BMJ},
month = {jul},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020683},
number = {7},
pages = {e020683},
doi = {10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020683}
}
MLA
Cite this
MLA Copy
Lennon, Hannah, et al. “Framework to construct and interpret latent class trajectory modelling.” BMJ Open, vol. 8, no. 7, Jul. 2018, p. e020683. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2017-020683.