Predicting the Thermodynamic Stability of Solids Combining Density Functional Theory and Machine Learning

We perform a large scale benchmark of machine learning methods for the prediction of the thermodynamic stability of solids. We start by constructing a data set that comprises density functional theory calculations of around 250000 cubic perovskite systems. This includes all possible perovskite and antiperovskite crystals that can be generated with elements from hydrogen to bismuth, excluding rare gases and lanthanides. Incidentally, these calculations already reveal a large number of systems (around 500) that are thermodynamically stable but that are not present in crystal structure databases. Moreover, some of these phases have unconventional compositions and define completely new families of perovskites. This data set is then used to train and test a series of machine learning algorithms to predict the energy distance to the convex hull of stability. In particular, we study the performance of ridge regression, random forests, extremely randomized trees (including adaptive boosting), and neural networks....