Medicina Clínica (English Edition)

Redhead J.W., Brown M., Price J., Robinson E., Nicholls R.J., Warren R., Pywell R.F.

ABSTRACTMost national assessments of climate change‐related risks to agriculture focus on the productivity of existing crops. However, one adaptation option is to switch to alternative crops better suited to changing local climates. Spatially explicit projections of relative climatic suitability across a wide range of crops can identify which ones might be viable alternatives. Parametrising process‐based models for multiple crops is complex, so there is value in using simpler approaches to ‘horizon scan’ to identify high‐level issues and target further research. We present a horizon scan approach based on EcoCrop data, producing mapped changes in suitability under +2°C and +4°C warming scenarios (above pre‐industrial), for over 160 crops across the United Kingdom. For the United Kingdom, climate change is likely to bring opportunities to diversify cropping systems. Many current and potential new crops show widespread increases in suitability under a +2°C warming scenario. However, under a +4°C scenario, several current crops (e.g. onions, strawberries, oats, wheat) begin to show declines in suitability in the region of the United Kingdom where most arable crops are currently grown. Whilst some new crops with increasing suitability may offer viable alternatives (e.g. soy, chickpea, grapes), the greatest average increases in suitability across crops occur outside the UK's current areas of greatest agricultural production. Realising these opportunities would thus be likely to require substantial changes to current farming systems and supply chains. By highlighting these opportunities and challenges, our approach provides potentially valuable information to farmers and national assessments.

Thompson V., Mitchell D., Melia N., Bloomfield H., Dunstone N., Kay G.

ABSTRACTIn July 2022 southeast England experienced a record breaking heatwave and unprecedented wildfires in urban areas. We investigate fire weather trends since 1960 in southeast England using a large ensemble of initialised climate models. Record smashing temperatures coincided with widespread fires in London, and we find that while wildfire risk was high, it was not record breaking. We show that between the 1960s and 2010s annual maximum daily fire weather has increased. The proportion of summertime days with high and very high fire risk has increased—while medium and low risk days have become less common. These findings show the need to mitigate against the increasing risk of wildfire caused by climate change.

Lin B.B., Fleming A., Romanach L., Boulaire F.A., Capon T., Po M., Cook S., Darbyshire R., Bluhm S., Barnett G.

ABSTRACTAustralia's first National Climate Risk Assessment is built on the latest science as well as learnings from other countries’ national risk assessments. The goal of the risk assessment was to identify the priority risks of climate change to Australia as a nation. Due to timeline obligations, this process needed to be completed in 4 months, a considerably shorter timeframe than other national climate risk assessments. In this paper, the authors share learnings from the process of implementing the first pass of Australia's National Climate Risk Assessment, which brought together more than 240 stakeholders across eight systems to co‐develop a set of national priority risks. These learnings are used to provide recommendations and advice for working at the national scale and within short timeframes. First, a rapid climate risk assessment can bring together a significant diversity and range of stakeholders to engage in a national process and provide a broad perspective of the priorities that should be pursued. Second, the design of the process can provide multiple opportunities to iterate through drafts of risks in rapid succession. Third, bringing stakeholders into discussion across systems can increase understanding of how risks are connected and how future work could be pursued across systems for more effective risk management and adaptation planning. Our learnings help inform how future climate risk assessments can embrace the complexity of systemic risks and highlight the importance of building stakeholder networks to support both the risk assessment process and the adaptation work that follows.

Shenk L., Eells J., Gutowski W.J., Franz K., Robinson D.

ABSTRACTThis article's team of interdisciplinary researchers and conservation educator‐practitioners learned with, and from, a group of women farmland‐owners regarding how to conceptualize coproduced climate research by putting “care” at the center—care for the soil, for relationships, for data. We outline the creation and evolution of a storytelling‐based conservation program that allowed our diverse group to discover how the language of care could integrate climate analysis, conservation, and relationship‐building to foster tangible solutions. As a result of the project, the women landowners took actions that supported social‐environmental resilience—from planting cover crops to fostering watershed/neighborhood relationships. Our diverse group of women landowners and researchers had very different experiences with conservation and often very different views on climate change itself, but, through storytelling and the language of care, we not only coproduced knowledge but also created relationships and action. This article outlines specific practices for how to inflect a coproduced process for climate resilience with practices that promote care and yield action projects.

Gadu S.E., Adom R.K., Simatele M.D.

ABSTRACTClimate change impacts are wreaking havoc in South Africa, particularly in the Eastern Cape Province. Hence, adaptation strategies are essential tools in the Eastern Cape, as the province is among the most vulnerable regions to climate change impacts in South Africa. In response and to minimise the adverse impacts of climate change on socioeconomic factors and livelihoods, the post‐apartheid South African government developed a policy framework for climate governance, with a focus on policy planning and adaptation. Although the policy sounds good and solution‐driven, the implementation of the programme at local levels to achieve the desired goals remained a significant challenge due to institutional and capacity challenges. Using research methods inspired by the tradition of qualitative and quantitative research approach and existing literature, this article explored the complexities of evaluating and monitoring the adaptive capacity to climate change governance at a local government level in South Africa, focusing on the Eastern Cape Province. The findings of this article uncovered that the institutional and capacity challenges create an unconducive environment for an evaluation of institutional adaptive capacity to climate change at local government level in South Africa. The absence of a reliable system to assess the institutional adaptive capacity to climate change at local government level makes it difficult to compare the adaptive capacity of different institutions and allocate available resources in an adequate manner. The article recommends a broader discourse of the sustainable development goals, particularly goal number 13, which encourages the strengthening of resilience and adaptive capacity to climate change impacts.

Shumba D.S.

AbstractThis paper conducts a semisystematic literature review from 2021 to 2023, focusing on loss and damage (L&D). Drawing upon the works of various scholars, it synthesizes critical concerns raised in the literature and assesses whether these concerns were addressed by the Transitional Committee's report on the operationalization of the new funding arrangements for responding to loss and damage, as outlined in COP 28 decisions 1/CP.28 and 5/CMA.5. By analyzing scholarly discussions on L&D leading up to COP 28, the study gauges the extent to which academic concerns have been addressed and identifies areas requiring improvement for better management of climate change‐induced L&D effects. The findings provide valuable insights for ongoing deliberations on the Loss and Damage Fund (LDF), offering guidance for policymakers as they address these challenges. Additionally, the paper informs future policy directions to ensure responsiveness to the needs of communities affected by climate change‐induced L&D. Lastly, the study contributes to ongoing scholarly dialogues by laying the groundwork for future research endeavors in this critical area.

Tscholl S., Egarter Vigl L.

AbstractWine production and quality both strongly depend on suitable climatic conditions. Increasing the climate resilience of wine regions is therefore of critical importance but requires instruments to evaluate shifts in climatic conditions and growing suitability. This evaluation is particularly challenging in mountain viticultural areas due to their complex topoclimatic patterns, yet they offer the possibility to analyze climate change impacts and adaptation strategies across various climatic conditions and cultivated varieties. Here, we assessed historical and future bioclimatic conditions and identified effective adaptation strategies toward more sustainable and climate‐resilient wine production in the mountain winegrowing regions within South Tyrol in the Italian Alps. We found significant changes in climatic conditions under future scenarios, such as an increase in the Huglin index (HI) and cool night index (CNI) as well as a decreased dryness index (DI), causing an expansion of suitable areas for viticulture as well as a spread of unprecedented climatic conditions in traditional vineyards. Impacts and suitable adaptation options varied depending on climate type and grape variety, highlighting the need for targeted solutions that balance the need for high‐quality wine production with environmental protection and sustainability. Higher elevated areas over 1000 m a.s.l. will experience an increased suitability raising the need for restrictions regarding the expansion of vineyards to avoid degradation of natural ecosystems and biodiversity declines. In contrast, many traditional winegrowing areas will need to implement a combination of short‐ and long‐term adaptation measures to maintain traditional wine styles. Our findings provide a framework for the assessment of viticultural suitability and the formulation of appropriate adaptation strategies for the sustainable cultivation of wine grapes in a changing climate that applies to a variety of climates and grape varieties.

Ying G., Ma F., Yingchun L., Heran W., Zhengping P., Lianxing G.

AbstractDrought is more frequent and intensified due to global warming. Changed conditions in Beijing‐Tianjin–Hebei region which is drier and warmer than before, make it necessary to investigate various optimized irrigation schemes in the winter wheat production. In this study, the DSSAT–CERES‐Wheat model verified by field experimental data was applied to simulate the yield of winter wheat in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region from 2010 to 2069a under RCP8.5 climate scenario. The irrigation schemes were set up by adjusting the irrigation amount and irrigation structure to evaluate their adaptive capacity to climate change. The results showed that the regional average yield reduction rates of potential drought were 81.98% and 78.86% in 2010–2039a and 2040–2069a, which were higher in the north than that in the south. The yield reduction rate of potential drought increased with the decrease of irrigation amount, and the adaptive capacity declined with the decrease of irrigation amount, under the same irrigation structure. When 3‐9‐6 irrigation structure was applied, the regional averages of adaptive capacity to potential drought were 28.30%, 26.23%, and 22.22% in 2010–2039a, 29.00%, 26.67%, and 21.76% in 2040–2069a. The shortage of water resources caused by climate change and the possibility of drought limit the potential yield of winter wheat as high as 80% in this region. Priority shall be given to meeting the water demand in jointing stage and filling stage. Irrigation scheme of 3‐9‐6 structure with 180 mm irrigation amount shall be recommended and its adaptive capacity to climate change is the strongest in the near term and the medium‐term. Even if a further 20% reduction in irrigation is applied (144 mm), the dual goals of reducing yield loss and saving 8.28 × 108 t irrigation water per winter wheat season can be achieved.

Baffour‐Ata F., Boakye L., Acquah L.E., Brown S.B., Kafui J.D., Marfo A.A., Acheampong P., Wheagar S.

AbstractClimate‐smart agriculture (CSA) is key to addressing climate change threats faced by smallholder farmers in Ghana. Nonetheless, evidence of the barriers challenging smallholder farmers in the implementation of CSA practices remains limited in Ghana. This study, therefore, investigated the barriers opposing smallholder cassava farmers in implementing CSA practices in the Afigya Kwabre South District, Ghana. The study used descriptive statistics and content analysis to analyze primary data collected through 200 household surveys and 10 key informant interviews from four selected communities (Aboabogya, Aduamoa, Aduman Old Town, and Aduman New Town) in the district. Results revealed that the smallholder cassava farmers implemented key CSA practices including mulching (89%), mixed farming (86%), crop diversification (84%), and crop rotation (81%) to build their resilience in food systems. Furthermore, the results showed that the critical enablers to the farmers’ utilization of CSA practices were access to weather and climate services (82%), a secured land tenure system (75%), and knowledge of the effects of climate change (68%). Also, the results indicated that the key barriers challenging smallholder cassava farmers in the implementation of CSA practices were inadequate technological assistance (91%), the incidence of pests and diseases (90%), and a lack of knowledge and understanding of CSA (90%). We recommend that smallholder cassava farmers adopt improved varieties of cassava that are resistant to pests and diseases, drought tolerant, high yielding, and possessing desirable quality traits. Smallholder cassava farmers can also participate in contract farming schemes that link them to agribusinesses that can offer them access to quality inputs, credit, training, and guaranteed markets for their produce.

Smith J.W., Faisal A.A., Hodson D., Baidya S., Bhatta M., Thapa D., Basnet R., Thurston W., Krupnik T.J., Gilligan C.A.

AbstractWheat contributes one‐fifth of the global food supply with an estimated 29% of global production in low and lower‐middle income countries. As production expands across southern Asia, yields are often negatively impacted by outbreaks of fungal rust diseases. A wheat rust early warning and advisory system comprising surveillance, near real‐time disease risk forecasts and advisory dissemination has been established in two target countries in South Asia, including Nepal and Bangladesh. However, as wheat rust spores can be aerially transmitted over long distances, near real‐time estimates of disease incidence are required from sources of infection in neighbouring regions. To address this challenge, we developed and tested a novel algorithm to generate proxy observations of infection sources using online media reports in two neighbouring countries, India and Pakistan. Media sampling could provide an effective alternative where data from ground surveys are not readily available in near real‐time. Our results show that west Nepal was exposed to a substantial inoculum pressure from aerially dispersed stripe rust spores originating from India and Pakistan. There were no outbreaks of stripe rust disease in Bangladesh with only very low levels of cross‐border dispersion and generally unfavourable environmental conditions for infection. We further describe how proxy observations informed farmer decision‐making in near real‐time in Nepal and filled a knowledge gap in identifying early sources of infection for a major outbreak of stripe rust during 2020 in Nepal. Our results highlight the importance of international cooperation in mitigating transboundary plant pathogens.

Agyekum T.P., Antwi‐Agyei P., Dougill A.J., Stringer L.C.

AbstractClimate‐smart agriculture (CSA) serves as a credible mechanism to simultaneously address food security, climate change, and agricultural productivity. Despite the widespread adoption of CSA approaches across West Africa, many countries have still not been able to resolve the problems of food insecurity and rural poverty. This systematic review evaluates published evidence on the types of CSA practices, the determinants and benefits of adoption, and the barriers confronting the adoption of CSA practices across West Africa, following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta‐Analyses statement checklist. Articles published in English from January 2010 to March 2023 investigating the benefits of and barriers to the adoption of CSA practices in West Africa were retrieved from ScienceDirect, Web of Science, and Scopus databases. The methodological quality of studies was assessed using Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tools for use in systematic reviews. The themes emerging from the articles were extracted, and a summary was provided to illustrate each theme. After applying the eligibility criteria, 12 articles were included in the final review. The studies reviewed revealed that farmers used more knowledge‐, water‐, carbon‐, and nitrogen‐smart practices, compared to weather‐ and energy‐smart practices. Across the reviewed papers, factors such as the education level of farmers, age, gender, household size, membership of a social group, agricultural extension services, and access to credit/financial resources influenced CSA adoption. The reviewed studies identified that farmers who used CSA practices reported benefits such as improved soil fertility, higher yield, improved household income, climate resilience (such as overcoming the effects of drought and extreme temperatures), and food security. Some farmers adopted CSA practices to reduce the effect of droughts and high temperatures on their crops, and thus increase their resilience to climate variability and change. However, farmers’ adoption is confronted with challenges related to the technicality of some CSA practices, high cost of labor for CSA implementation, lack of credit and government support, limited access to weather and climate information, limited information about CSA options, high illiteracy level of smallholder farmers, and incompatibility of some practices with farmers’ crop of interest. Our findings show that most CSA practices in the studies we reviewed are not well targeted to meet farmers’ crop of interest, and that governments should provide more practical training to enhance farmers’ understanding of CSA practices, especially those related to weather‐ and energy‐smart initiatives. There should also be more robust financial and institutional support to improve the adoption and usage of CSA practices at all levels. Additionally, socio‐cultural factors such as values, customs, and beliefs should be properly integrated into CSA plans as they influence the adoption of CSA practices.

Gadu S.E., Adom R.K., Simatele M.D.

AbstractIt is no longer a myth that climate change‐related disasters are on the rise globally, with severe and devastating consequences in developing countries, particularly in Sub‐Saharan Africa, where many of the world's poor people reside. Thus, the emphasis on adaptation to climate change is no longer a choice or a deferred problem into the future, but rather an urgent matter of concern which must be considered a policy priority. As a response to retrogressive climate change challenges on social‐economic development and environmental degradation, the government of South Africa has in the last two and half decades, embarked on the progressive formulation of different policy instruments and strategic frameworks to curb and minimize the impacts of climate change on all sub‐sectors of the economy. Although much remains to be achieved, some level of success has been realized, particularly in the space of policy formulation, albeit the poor record of implementation. Using research methods inspired by the tradition of qualitative research and an appraisal of existing literature, this paper discusses the complexities of climate change adaptation governance at a local government level in South Africa, focusing on the Eastern Cape Province. It is argued in the paper that one of the major challenges for climate change governance at local municipality levels in South Africa emanates from the gap between aspirations and actions across the entire national governance system. The absence of an integrated climate change governance system has posed significant systemic challenges, and these have tended to constrain decision‐making and implementation processes. These issues have been discussed within the broader discourse of the sustainable development goals, particularly goals number 13, 16 and 17.

Durant M., Hall E., Morris A., Walburn G., Wilcox A., Counsell C.

AbstractUK water resources face a number of challenges when planning for an uncertain future. Climate change impacts and what future droughts might look like can be a significant contributor to this uncertainty. Recent and potential future developments (e.g. ever‐finer resolutions) in climate modelling offer the potential for running bias‐corrected transient future scenarios through hydrological, hydrogeological and water supply models, providing users with droughts of differing severity, frequency, spatial extent and duration to those experienced historically, incorporating changes over time and an understanding of climate model uncertainty. The recent enhanced Future Flows and Groundwater (eFLaG) project sought to demonstrate a climate service using these transient scenarios, with the aim of enhancing the resilience of the water industry to drought events and complementing existing approaches. The project demonstrated the use of this transient climate change information within a water resource setting, using a variety of hydrological and water resource models to help illuminate potential gaps and issues with such an approach. If we are to realise the potential of transient scenarios, a number of barriers – both scientific and organisational – need to be overcome. We present a road map for the future based on outcomes from the eFLaG project, as well as ways the eFLaG projections could be used to improve system resilience in the present.

Macheka M.T.

AbstractZimbabwe has been hit by a number of cyclones in the last two decades, namely Cyclone Eline in 2000, Cyclone Japhet in 2003, Cyclone Dineo in 2017, Cyclone Idai in 2019, Tropical Storm Chalane in 2020, Cyclone Eloise in 2021, Cyclone Ana in 2022 and Cyclone Freddy in 2023. Resultantly, the issue of ecological sustainability becomes a key priority issue in the country, and thus, all key stakeholders’ participation becomes imperative. Against this background, the study interrogates the level of participation and inclusion of Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in climate change and disaster management in Zimbabwe. This qualitative research adopted a mixed research approach where data were gathered and generated through self‐administered and online questionnaires, focus group discussions, key informant interviews and document review. Findings revealed that the available laws, structures and mechanisms for climate change management and disaster prevention do not have provision for the participation of HEIs. The study further established mixed views among the participants regarding the efforts by HEIs in climate change and disaster management. On one hand, academics and students highlighted roles of HEIs in climate change management, and these include material donations, knowledge creation, training community on climate mainstreaming, awareness campaigns, leading climate change adaptation projects, leading climate change mitigation projects and testing and deployment of innovative practices. On the other, communities voiced their concern on the low level of participation by HEIs. Results illustrate that HEIs do not fully participate in ecological sustainability outside the academia realm. Therefore, the study concludes that in order to realize ecological sustainability, these policy gaps and inconsistences and failures could be bridged by allowing HEIs as centres of knowledge creation to be key players in climate change and disaster management. The ‘business as usual’ approach to environmental challenges could be changed to being key players in addressing climate change issues.

Gyimah A.B., Antwi‐Agyei P., Adom‐Asamoah G., Baffour‐Ata F.

AbstractGender‐differentiated roles, responsibilities, access, rights, and knowledge gaps shape women's vulnerability to climate change. This is especially critical for women farmers whose livelihoods are climate‐dependent. A key component in building women farmers’ resilience to climate change is deepening their adaptive capacity. Therefore, this research sought to measure the adaptive capacity of women farmers from two unique districts of Ghana using the sustainable livelihood capitals and investigate how access to climate information and the uptake of climate action can influence women's adaptive capacity. Rural women farmers (n = 497) were interviewed through a survey and supported with key informant interviews from six agricultural staff at the selected districts. The adaptive capacity of respondents was rated moderate at 0.405. Differences between the adaptive capacity of women from different agroecological zones (Dormaa East—0.422; East Gonja—0.388) were statistically insignificant (p > 0.05). All climate information mediums except the TV medium had a significant prediction on women farmers’ adaptive capacity. The odds of a decreasing relationship of predictor variables, such as extension officer medium, radio, and adaptation action, require strategic structuring to accrue holistic benefit. The study thus recommends deepening women's benefit from extension services by attracting and retaining female extensionists, while training extensionists on tailored techniques for engaging female farmers. Again, extensionists who report high outreach to female farmers should be incentivized. Traditional and modern Information and Communication Technology mediums must be explored and integrated as alternatives. Co‐benefit practices for both adaptation and mitigation should be encouraged among women farmers to deepen climate action.