Delphi method: analysis of rounds, stakeholder and statistical indicators

Bloem da Silveira Junior L.A., Vasconcellos E., Vasconcellos Guedes L., Guedes L.F., Costa R.M.

This study outlines a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap. The objectives of this paper are: (a) present a methodology to design a TRM using Delphi associated with other techniques (morphological analysis, decision matrix, interviews, and prioritization analysis), and (b) demonstrate and discuss the application of proposed TRM methodology to define alternative materials aiming to reduce the weight of structural shock absorbers. The field research consisted of a case study approach in the Brazilian subsidiary of an Italian auto parts MNC combined with action research methodology. The main contributions of this paper are: a) The proposition of a methodology to refine Delphi results as part of the process to design a technology roadmap (TRM), including a decision matrix, interviews with external experts, and a prioritization analysis and b) The action research provided good quality results as well as an opportunity to test the methodology in a company environment during eight months; this is not common to find in the literature.

Cairns G., Wright G., Fairbrother P., Phillips R.

In this article, we outline and discuss a novel augmentation of scenario method combined with Delphi analysis to engage multiple actors in analyzing complex and contested problems. In particular, we present 'branching scenarios' as an approach that breaks potential chains of perceived causality from the national/global level to drive local outcomes. The approach focuses on generating debate on local agency. The project discussed formed part of a larger research program in North West Tasmania to study the possible processes for economic and social regeneration. In engaging key stakeholders from public, private and non-governmental organizations, the team faced issues associated with participants' geographical dispersal and lack of time. In addition, the region may be considered as characterized by 'lock-in' to extant structures and, perhaps, resistant to the change necessary to achieve economic regeneration. For these reasons, our scenario intervention was deliberately designed to provide a cognitive 'jolt' to these senior, time-poor individuals - seeking to prompt their articulated action to achieve the jointly-held goal, regeneration. We document our approach and evaluate and analyze the degree to which we achieved this jointly-desired outcome. We present a new conceptual framework for broad social inquiry that will promote deep stakeholder engagement.

Nygrén N.A., Tapio P., Qi Y.

The freshwaters of the world are facing enormous pressures and demands. Eutrophication is a widespread problem threatening the biodiversity and usability of waters. Unfortunately, the means to alleviate eutrophication are either difficult to realize, inefficient, or effective only on the short-term. In addition, the use of various means is laden with interests, contradictory values and cultural goals, which further complicate the wicked problem of eutrophication and lake management. To scrutinize the problem, a two-round, international Delphi study was carried out. This paper uncovers lake experts’ views on how eutrophic lakes will and should be managed and restored in the future up to 2030. Through cluster analysis, the variety of the views of the experts was condensed into five coherent future images: Business as Usual, Let ’ s Heal the Lakes, No More Nutrient Discharges, Back to Nature, and Dystopia . The Delphi panel evaluated the Business as Usual as the most probable and the Let ’ s Heal the Lakes as the most preferred of the future images. In this paper, we discuss the future images, their preconditions and policy requirements. We also discuss the concept of future images as well as methodological characteristics of relatively large Delphi panels.

Münzberg T., Wiens M., Schultmann F.

Power outages are among the most serious Critical Infrastructure (CI) disruptions and require effective disaster management with collaboration of affected CI providers and disaster management authorities. To support building community resilience, we introduce a vulnerability assessment which allows an enhanced spatial-temporal understanding of initial power outage impacts. Using the assessment enables planers to better identify which and when CIs become vulnerable and how important they are in comparison to other CIs before the overall crisis situation escalates and unmanageable cascading effects occur. The assessment addresses the initial phase of a power outage and corresponding early measures of local risk and crisis management organizations according to the German disaster management system. The assessment is an indicator-based approach which is extended to consider time-depending effects through time-referenced demand and the depletion of Coping Capacity Resources (CCR). The estimation of the relevance of CIs regarding the provision of vital services and products is addressed by a modified Delphi method. In addition, an expert survey was conducted to shed light on the evaluation of coping resources. In this paper, we describe the components of the assessment and propose different aggregation approaches which each enhances the understanding of spatial-temporal impacts of a power outage, and, hence, increases the forecasting capability for disaster management authorities. For demonstration purposes, the assessment is implemented for the case of the city of Mannheim, Germany.

Adini B., Cohen O., Eide A.W., Nilsson S., Aharonson-Daniel L., Herrera I.A.

Resilience management guidelines address disruptions, changes and opportunities, facilitate anticipation, adaptation, flexibility and provide a foundation for an effective crisis response. The objective and novelty of the study were to propose a holistic framework that enables to evaluate and prioritise concepts, approaches and practices that should be incorporated into European guidelines for resilience management. Based on a modified Delphi process, 51 items achieved a consensus of >  80%. 84% of the items (n = 43) were ranked as important; 13.7% (n = 7) as essential; one ranked as somewhat important. The identified items encompass eleven categories as follows: 1) collaboration [11 items]; 2) planning [8 items]; 3) procedures [8 items]; 4) training [6 items]; 5) infrastructure [5 items]; 6) communication [3 items]; 7) governance [3 items]; 8) learning lessons [2 items]; 9) situation understanding (awareness) [1 item]; 10) resources [2 items]; and 11) evaluation [2 items]. The identified concepts, approaches and practices seem to be applicable to a wide range of domains and critical infrastructures, such as crisis management, air traffic management and healthcare, due to their generic and abstract characteristics. Important in the Delphi process is the engagement of potential end users in the development of resilience management guidelines to align this development to their needs. Therefore, the Delphi process involved policy and decision-makers, as well as practitioners and other personnel representing different critical infrastructures and academia, in prioritising concepts aimed at achieving resilient organisations, entities or communities.

Zarta Sossa J.W., Montes Hincapie J.M., Toro Jaramillo I.D., Hernandez Zarta R., Villada H.S., Hoyos Concha J.L.

Zulean M., Andreescu L., Gheorghiu R., Roescu A.M., Curaj A.

Purpose The purpose of this practice-oriented paper is to look at a recent, late-phase development in public administration (PA) reform in Romania, specifically the drafting of the recently adopted national Strategy on Strengthening the Efficiency of Public Administration (2014-2020). In particular, the paper focuses on the opportunities and limits of outsourcing the building of the vision underlying the strategy and the prioritization of strategic objectives. The article’s story is also placed in the broader context of agencification literature and, more specifically, the involvement of executive agencies in policymaking. Design/methodology/approach The paper describes the vision-building exercise, developed according to a script already tested in several sectoral strategy-making processes, and the objectives and procedure of the online participatory consultation by using an adapted real-time Delphi format (similarly tested in the recent past). Findings The paper reports on the ways in which the output of the visioning process and of online consultations may be used to enhance a strategic process already underway. Originality/value PA reform in post-communist countries has been among the most hotly debated, intensely pursued, yet seemingly elusive policy objectives of the transition and post-transition periods. Among pre-accession and then European Union (EU) member states, the need to get in and then to get involved in European policymaking provided some impetus for such reforms and also set substantial constraints, without however always adding much predictability or significantly streamlining the public sector. The paper contributes to this debate by proving an innovative method of devising a reform strategy by outsourcing the strategy-building process to an agency with the necessary know-how and experience.

Ena O.V., Chulok A.A., Shashnov S.A.

A key element of any government's Science, Technology and Innovation policy is stable analytical infrastructure to support strategic decision making. Experience from many countries shows that substantial policy decision making requires collecting and analysing a broad range of information to develop proactive and future-oriented policies. Accordingly, infrastructure providing this information as well as evidence for policy-making must possess the capabilities for collecting, assessing, and processing information. However, information in this context is highly specific and subject related information, which is frequently embodied within expert knowledge holders. Therefore, information management in this light imposes special challenges on infrastructure. The present study discusses some methodological approaches and practical studies to set up a network of STI Foresight network in Russia, integrated into the national Foresight and planning system. We outline the principles for goal setting, network architecture, creating a network of experts, selecting key information products, and methodological support. Russia's STI Foresight network, built on principles presented here, has been fully operational since 2011 and provides expertise on a large scale for a variety of governmental and industry organizations.

Proskuryakova L.

This paper offers a novel comprehensive conceptualization of Energy Technology Foresight (ETF) in emerging economies, including development trajectories, key methodological tools and elements, major challenges and weaknesses. ETF allows the emerging economies to provide the basis for government's energy policy, to create a common vision among the various actors and to strengthen RD integration of foresight outcomes in national and corporate strategic planning; constant revision of ETF methodology; dominance of economic, technological and security considerations; and the inability to catch-up with the energy technology development of the world leaders. Three case-studies (Russia, Brazil and China) of ETF in emerging markets are presented to illustrate and substantiate the conceptual approach. The paper is of interest for researchers that are involved in future studies, as well as decision-makers, who commission such studies and use their outcomes to advance the policy processes and documents.

Li N., Chen K., Kou M.

Technology foresight has received increasing attention in China among academic scholars and policy makers. This paper, based on an analysis of global technology foresight features, systematically summarizes and discusses academic studies, governmental practices, and policy applications regarding technology foresight in China, associated with bibliometrics, expert interviews, and desk research methods. The evidence of both theoretical studies and practical activities indicates that technology foresight has rapidly developed in China. This development process can be divided into three periods: the exploration, rapid development, and maturation periods. Technology foresight activities in China enable stakeholders to consult with each other, which leads to a technology foresight culture. Further, many problems in developing and planning with science, technology, and innovation can be solved when comprehensive approaches are adopted to conduct technology foresight activities, including large-scale Delphi survey, scenario analysis, technology roadmap, and bibliometrics, among others. Currently, technology foresight is not only an essential instrument, but is also widely applied in China to develop planning and policies regarding science, technology, and innovation activities. Alternatively, the methodology of Chinese technology foresight and its application to science and technology planning must further improve.

Santos C., Araújo M., Correia N.

This paper proposes a technology foresight methodology based on the development of a complementary approach to the Delphi method that enables the identification of strategic technological competences, and presents its application in a sheet metal processing equipment manufacturer. The proposed methodology takes into consideration synergies between future events through a modified QFD matrix, and the application involved a panel of experts from industry and academia. The proposed methodology can benefit organizations by promoting a homogeneous perspective on existing relationships between external drivers and technology diffusion. This study contributes for the understanding of the links between foresight and technology strategy formulation. Further implementations in industrial environments should be performed to refine the methodology and increase the confidence level on the expected results that these findings can signify.

Aengenheyster S., Cuhls K., Gerhold L., Heiskanen-Schüttler M., Huck J., Muszynska M.

The success of Real-Time Delphi studies largely depends on the capabilities of the chosen software-based tool. First, there are currently a number of different tools at the community's disposal. Second, these tools vary widely in terms of their respective capabilities. Consensus as to what qualifies such tools for their academic purpose has not yet been established, even though Real-Time Delphi studies have become increasingly popular in recent years. The social science literature has hitherto offered relatively few analyses about the applicability of Real-Time Delphi software. This paper seeks to address this research gap by developing a methodology to compare and categorize tools that are available on the market, thus making a first step towards the establishment of academic standards for Real-Time Delphi studies. The basis of this paper is the testing of four selected Real-Time Delphi tools and their application. Through reviewing the existing literature the authors developed a system of categories and sub-categories according to which the tools were assessed and compared. The findings presented in this paper highlight the need for further development of the existing tools in order to iron out their shortcomings. Furthermore, this paper is merely considered to be the groundwork for research based on more exhaustive empirical evidence in the future, and for upcoming Real-Time Delphi studies.

Ena O.V., Abdrakhmanova G.I.

Purpose Developing methodically sound approaches for defining and analysing measurements of sectoral science and technology (S&T) priorities is a key pre-requisite of a successful and effective state science, technology and innovation management system. This paper aims to present the results of research into the evolution of Russia’s S&T priorities in information and communication technologies (ICTs) based on a system founded on detailed profiles for sectoral critical technologies (CTs) supplemented by quantitative statistics on the development of the information society in Russia. Design/methodology/approach This analysis of Russia’s ICT S&T priorities was broken down into three periods which tie in with milestones when large-scale changes in ICT were observed: 2002-2006; 2007-2010; 2011-2015. Findings This paper presents the results of research into the evolution of Russia’s S&T priorities in ICTs based on a system founded on detailed and carefully studied profiles for sectoral CTs supplemented by quantitative statistics on the development of the information society in Russia. An important aspect in support of this approach is regular large-scale processes to update the profiles of sectoral CTs (on average once every five years) and to conduct statistical observations in ICT (once every year). The involvement in this process of updating CTs of large (500 or more) numbers of sectoral experts representing industry leaders, research and educational institutions, core ministries and regulatory bodies guarantees a comprehensive cross-section in researching and profiling CTs in different important areas: science, production and government administration. Originality/value For more than 15 years, the Higher School of Economics has been conducting a range of statistical studies on ICT: the amount of goods and services output in the ICT sector and the level of diffusion and use of ICT in the economy, social sphere and public and private life. The results of these studies are used as an evidence base when defining and updating STI priorities to develop Russia’s ICT industry. This paper presents a retrospective view of the evolution of Russia’s S&T priorities from 2002 to the present and discusses the effects of ICT’s transformation in specific changing markets and identifies priority areas for the future.

Toppinen A., Pätäri S., Tuppura A., Jantunen A.

The current challenge facing the European pulp and paper industry is how to materialize the transformation to a bio-economy, as well as to realize the necessary new green innovations. The risks, costs and constraints of doing business will increase, thereby further intensifying competition, but at the same time new business opportunities will open up. This study adopts a three-round dissensus-based Delphi approach in order to explore our key research question of how the pulp and paper industry may change strategically, and what is the potential for value creation in the year 2030. According to our expert panel, the main drivers of competitiveness in 2030 will include energy and material efficiency, sustainability, as well as new innovations in products to serve customer needs better. According to the projected 2030 scenario, the pulp and paper industry will produce more diversified products, focus on higher value-added, and aim at consumer segments with higher environmental awareness. On average, 40 percent of the turnover will according to the panel come from genuinely new products. Strategic cross-sectorial partnerships will have a key role in making this big leap, while simultaneously acknowledging the changing needs of sustainability-conscious customers and other stakeholders.

Tapio P., Rintamäki H., Rikkonen P., Ruotsalainen J.

As modern societies are moving to the bio-economy era the energy solutions of enterprises are becoming increasingly important. In this paper we study the energy futures of farms up to 2030. A two-rounded mixed Delphi study combining qualitative and quantitative data was carried out to gather the views of experts within agriculture, as well as climate and energy issues. In the first round the experts answered a questionnaire and were interviewed and on the second round a feed-back report from the first round and an online questionnaire was used. The experts were asked to estimate probable and evaluate preferred futures of eleven energy sources in farm-level energy usage. Images of the future were constructed by performing a cluster analysis of the quantitative data. The quantitative clusters were complemented with qualitative material providing, arguments, meanings and rationale of and paths to the images of the future. Six scenarios were formed this way: 1) Boiler and Pump, 2) Incremental Change, 3) Energy Boost Plus, 4) Energy Boost Minus, 5) Renewable Prosperity and 6) Energy Save. The six scenarios differ in how much they envision traditional energy forms (bulk electricity, oil, natural gas) will be used and what is the emphasis of combustion of biofuels (wood, liquid biofuels, biogas, other biomass) and the use of other renewables (wind, solar energy, heat pumps and hydropower). All scenarios need consistent policies in order to become realised in the future – it is time to decide.

Shaviv E., Zemah-Shamir S., Parag Y., Teschner N.

Sossa J.W., Monsalve A.M., Posada N.G., Montoya L.H., Piedrahíta J.C., Mendoza G.L., Sarta J.F., Grisales L.V., López C.A.

The objective of this article is to identify and prioritize technologies, innovations and new businesses related to the dairy agro-industrial chain that are expected to emerge by 2035. To do so, the two-round Delphi method was used and questionnaires were applied to 27 national and international experts. A technology tree was built with Python codes and libraries, consisting of 174 topics. Additionally, 39 variables were generated for scenarios in the Good Livestock Practices BPG; Research, Development and Innovation R&D&I; Sustainable Livestock and Agroindustry groups, as well as four hypotheses and a bet scenario, with the future objectives of sustainable specialization of forage production and mass production and standardization in collection centers. This can be achieved through projects on technologies and innovations prioritized in the Delphi method, including ultrasound, pulsed combustion drying, dairy-derived medicinal products, bioethanol produced from whey, artificial intelligence and selection assisted by molecular markers, electromembrane filtration technologies, whey protein concentrates, life cycle assessment, blockchain, neural networks and smart assays, among others. The opportunity that actors in the Science, Technology and Innovation system have in the chain for the development of programs, plans, public policies and open innovation challenges in the prioritized technologies is highlighted.

Zartha Sossa J.W., Gutiérrez Posada N., Zuluaga Monsalve A.M., Botero Montoya L.H., Gutiérrez Cano L.F., González Candia J., Gómez Salazar J.O., Orozco Mendoza G.L., Escobar Mora N.J.

This study proposes a sustainable Innovation Management Model (MGI) for the plantain agroindustrial chain, applied to the Quindío region of Colombia. A mixed-methods approach was employed, incorporating various techniques, including a systematic literature review using the Scopus database, which analyzed 95 documents through the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) framework. The identification and prioritization of relevant variables, along with the validation of the proposed model, were also conducted through the use of three questionnaires, supplemented by relevance and congruence indices. The analysis identified 53 variables for the entry stage, 36 for the transformation stage, and 31 for the exit stage. The findings revealed significant gaps within the agroindustrial chain, particularly in areas such as leadership, strategic management, and resilience among key stakeholders. The MGI, as prioritized by stakeholders, provides a framework that integrates variables and information flows, facilitating the development of new open innovation challenges. These challenges engage not only seekers—entities that require innovation—but also solvers—organizations that offer solutions. The implementation of this model will require supportive public policies, projects, and web platforms, such as Innocentive/Wazoku, Ninesigma, Ruta N, Yet2.com, Itonics, and Ennomotive, which, with the aid of artificial intelligence, can connect innovation supply and demand through open challenges.

El Idrissi A., Fourka M.

Virtual teams (VTs) are groups of people who work interdependently towards a common goal across geographical, temporal, and organizational boundaries, using technology to communicate and collaborate. Business competition, globalization, and rapid advancement in information and communication technology have propelled the growing prevalence of VTs. In addition, virtual collaboration allows bringing diverse talents and perspectives regardless of their location. However, cultural diversity and the lack of social interaction between VT members reduce the opportunity for informal communication and can cause conflicts and mistrust. The aim of this work is to develop a framework to enhance VT performance opportunities and reduce its setbacks. Based upon a quantitatively validated conceptual model, we developed a “virtual team performance framework” named VTPerF. Consisting of seven principles and seven processes, this framework presents the mechanisms that can help professionals improve VT performance. This framework is validated through a qualitative approach using Delphi method.

Farizal, Taurina Z., Endrianto E., Nurcahyo R., Yassierli

Energy production of a power plant is significantly affected by the availability of spare parts for machinery operation and maintenance (O&M). The availability of spare parts prevents prolonged breakdown and maintenance. However, even though some quantitative methods exist to determine the number of spare parts, to avoid the events occurring, generally companies follow manufacturer recommendation that leads to depositing a large number of spare parts. Retaining excessive stocks increases inventory costs. This paper presents a novel methodology to determine the type and number of spare parts of a power plant. The methodology, which is a blending of quantitative (modified multi-criteria classification method) and qualitative (semi-Delphi approach) methods, offers a practical way that even can be exercised with paper and pencil and a simple calculator, but sound. The methodology provides a significant inventory saving. A case study of dual-fuel power plants showed that the number of spare parts recommended was less than the number currently stocked by the company. The percentage is reduced to ~ 70% with cost saving on average 6.1%. The proposed methods suggested stocking parts categorized into H (highly required) and M (recommended) types of spare parts only.

Arumsari P., Alisjahbana S.M., Rarasati A.D., Najid N.

Purpose Currently, public-rented flats in Jakarta Province are managed by the Management Unit of Public-Rented Flats (MUPRF), which uses the Regional Revenue and Expenditure Budget (RREB) as the source of its financing. However, several previous studies have suggested that the MUPRF change its institutional scheme, to be more independent and not rely on the RREB as its source of finance. The study aims to identify three variable groups, public-rented flats’ characteristics, alternative institutional and financial schemes and challenges in the change of institutional and financial schemes. Design/methodology/approach This is a qualitative research, where both triangulation and the Delphi method are used to enrich findings. Triangulation is used to collect data from more than one source, and the Delphi method is used to gather opinions from experts and reach a consensus on the variables identified in the triangulation process. Findings Based on the findings there are 11 variables of public-rented flats’ characteristics, three variables of alternative institutional and financial schemes and four variables of challenges in the change of institutional and financial scheme. Research limitations/implications Through the triangulation process, only two sources were used, sources from previous research and regulations. In the Delphi method process, experts were staff from the Department of Community Housing and Settlement of the DKI Jakarta Province. Originality/value This research will be used as the basis on developing a system dynamics on how the MUPRF works as a system to figure out whether it can be changed into the alternative scheme proposed, with all the characteristics and challenges identified.

Pineda-Pinto M., Collier M., Cooper C., O’Donnell M., Nulty F., Castañeda N.R.

Kajjoba D., Wesonga R., Olupot P.W., Kirabira J.B., Lwanyaga J.D., Kasedde H.

Kakarougkas C., Adamidis A.

Hotels have implemented strict health protocols to protect customers and employees from the spread of the COVID-19 disease. Due to the extensive changes, they imposed in the daily operation- contactless transactions, personal protective equipment, changes in the service offering, etc.- these health protocols affected the Organizational Culture (OC) of all the hotel departments. The aim of this study is (a) to investigate the development of the organizational culture in the areas of Organizational Design, Customers Service, and Human Resources Management of the Rooms Division of hotels due to the implementation of the COVID-19 prevention health protocols and (b) to propose strategic level policies that will help hotel managers to reduce the negative and strengthen the positive elements of this evolution. The Delphi method was chosen to achieve the above research objective. From July 7, 2021, to March 28, 2022, qualitative and quantitative data were collected from hotel managers and academics specializing in hotel management through three consecutive research rounds. The organizational culture of the Rooms Division of hotels has evolved to a considerable extent due to the implementation of the health protocols for the prevention of the COVID-19 spread in the fields of Organizational Design, Customer Service, and Human Resources Management. This evolution created significant challenges for hotel businesses, which can be a threat and, in some cases, an opportunity. The results of this study hold elements of originality and scientific and practical value.

Ho C.S., Chiu M.M., Chiu S.W., Liu L.C.

This study introduces the Adolescent Entrepreneurial Attributes (AEA) scale, designed to measure key entrepreneurial attributes among adolescents within an educational context. Employing a mixed-methods approach, the research involved four distinct studies: a Delphi study to refine the measurement items, a survey of youth entrepreneurship course graduates to gather perceptions of entrepreneurial attributes, a psychometric assessment to test the reliability and validity of the AEA scale, and a SEM validation study to correlate the AEA with established measures of entrepreneurial self-efficacy and intention. The findings revealed that the AEA scale is a reliable and valid tool that captures a nested profile of adolescents' entrepreneurial attributes, including innovativeness, opportunity recognition, risk-taking propensity, proactiveness, vision-driven thinking, ethical thinking, and communication and collaboration. The scale's development contributes to the field by providing a nuanced understanding of adolescents' entrepreneurial attributes. The scale supports educational efforts to assess entrepreneurship education (EE) with aims to nurture adolescents' generic entrepreneurial attributes, differentiating from existing measurements of entrepreneurial self-efficacy, and entrepreneurial intentions to evaluate entrepreneurship education programs.

Botero Montoya L.H., Gutiérrez N., Zuluaga A., Gutiérrez L.F., Gómez J.O., Orozco G.L., Zartha J.W.

This article presents the results of a study focused on collaboratively developing an Innovation Management Model (MGI) for the leather agro-industrial chain in Colombia. This study integrates the participation of interested parties, the prioritization of variables, the literature review, and the validation of the model, emphasizing sustainability considerations throughout the process. The methodology involved a literature review, using Scopus and Google Scholar, focusing on innovation management models, open innovation, and sustainability of the leather sector. In addition, three surveys were conducted to prioritize the established variables, using Likert scale questions, to assess relevance and congruence. Key findings included 26 critical variables covering aspects such as agricultural and technological innovation in platforms and projects, capacity development, R&D activities, supply chain dynamics, innovation management processes, knowledge and technology integration, business model adaptation for sustainable development, and environmental impact assessment. The prioritized innovation model aims to guide stakeholders to define open innovation strategies, sustainable and regenerative innovation generation, and improvement of strategic and technological capabilities.

Meskó B., Kristóf T., Dhunnoo P., Árvai N., Katonai G.

Background The historical development and contemporary instances of futures studies, an interdisciplinary field that focuses on exploring and formulating alternative futures, exemplify the increasing significance of using futures methods in shaping the health care domain. Despite the wide array of these methodologies, there have been limited endeavors to employ them within the medical community thus far. Objective We undertook the first scoping review to date about the application of futures methodologies and published foresight projects in health care. Methods Through the use of the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) method, we identified 59 studies that were subsequently categorized into the following 5 distinct themes: national strategies (n=19), strategic health care foresight (n=15), health care policy and workforce dynamics (n=6), pandemic preparedness and response (n=7), and specialized medical domains (n=12). Results Our scoping review revealed that the application of futures methods and foresight has been successfully demonstrated in a wide range of fields, including national strategies, policy formulation, global threat preparedness, and technological advancements. The results of our review indicate that a total of 8 futures methods have already been used in medicine and health care, while there are more than 50 futures methods available. It may underscore the notion that the field is unexploited. Furthermore, the absence of structured methodologies and principles for employing foresight and futures techniques in the health care domain warrants the creation of medical futures studies as a separate scientific subfield within the broad domains of health care, medicine, and life sciences. This subfield would focus on the analysis of emerging technological trends, the evaluation of policy implications, and the proactive anticipation and mitigation of potential challenges. Conclusions Futures studies can significantly enhance medical science by addressing a crucial deficiency in the promotion of democratic participation, facilitating interdisciplinary dialogue, and shaping alternative futures. To further contribute to the development of a new research community in medical futures studies, it is recommended to establish a specialized scientific journal. Additionally, appointing dedicated futurists in decision-making and national strategy, and incorporating futures methods into the medical curriculum could be beneficial.

Zartha Sossa J.W., Gutiérrez Posada N., Zuluaga Monsalve A.M., Valencia Grisales L., Hernández Becerra E., Orozco Mendoza G.L., Palacio Piedrahita J.C., Guarnizo Gómez C.A., Moreno Sarta J.F.

Purpose This paper aims to identify future scenarios and convergent technologies regarding the plantain chain in the region of Quindío, Colombia. It proposes the definition of key variables, convergent technologies, future objectives, future scenarios and hypotheses based on stakeholders’ and experts’ opinions collected through questionnaires, surveys and workshops. Design/methodology/approach The present analysis seeks to identify and anticipate the future routes for the improvement of scientific, technological, innovative and skills management of the plantain agroindustrial chain in the region of Quindío, Colombia using the foresight-by-scenarios and, Delphi methodologies and finally validating the results with artificial intelligence code and natural language processing. Findings After the analysis of 100 initial variables, the results suggested the identification of five key variables defined by the stakeholders and matrix-based multiplication applied to a classification (MICMAC) analysis such as “weather,” “financing and economy,” “grouping and associativity,” “crop” and “territorial planning and raw material.” Moreover, the definition of four future objectives along with the matrix of alliances and conflicts, tactics, objectives and recommendations (MACTOR) analysis suggested scenarios according to the probability. The most possible, probable and desirable scenario, was the cooccurrence of the five proposed hypotheses. Furthermore, the Delphi analysis allowed us to define nine subgroups from 116 subtopics including: “plantain varieties,” “plantain agroindustry,” “waste use” and “crop,” among others. Research limitations/implications Due to the specificity of the analyzed agro-chain, the study only encompasses the plantain and banana sectors. However, the implications are related to the generation of projects in the selected technologies. Practical implications This paper includes implications for the development of prospective studies combining two or more different methodologies such as foresight-by-scenarios and Delphi method at the same time and further comparing the results with artificial intelligence analysis. Social implications The generation of public policies in the sector and input for governmental analysis and tools for decision-making with a well-grounded, systematic and rational point of view. Originality/value This work describes for the first time, the implementation of the Delphi method regarding an important agroindustry sector such as plantain and banana prospective study. Furthermore, it explains the alignment of two methodologies; foresight-by-scenarios and the Delphi method related to the sectorial approaches, and convergent technologies and innovations, respectively. Moreover, a complementary bibliometric analysis with global terms related to the plantain or banana agroindustry was also included. In a novel way, we also applied an artificial intelligence code using Python software to contrast the results previously obtained in the foresight-by-scenarios method.

Priego-Quesada J.I., Arkesteijn M., Bertucci W., Bini R.R., Carpes F.P., Diefenthaeler F., Dorel S., Fonda B., Gatti A.A., Holliday W., Janssen I., Elvira J.L., Millour G., Perez-Soriano P., Swart J., et. al.

AbstractBicycle set-up dimensions and cycling kinematic data are important components of bicycle fitting and cyclist testing protocols. However, there are no guidelines on how bicycles should be measured and how kinematic data should be collected to increase the reliability of outcomes. This article proposes a consensus regarding bicycle set-up dimensions and recommendations for collecting cycling-related kinematic data. Four core members recruited panellists, prepared the document to review in each round for panellists, analysed the scores and comments of the expert panellists, reported the decisions and communicated with panellists. Fourteen experts with experience in research involving cycling kinematics and/or bicycle fitting agreed to participate as panellists. An initial list of 17 statements was proposed, rated using a five-point Likert scale and commented on by panellists in three rounds of anonymous surveys following a Delphi procedure. The consensus was agreed upon when more than 80% of the panellists scored the statement with values of 4 and 5 (moderately and strongly agree) with an interquartile range of less than or equal to 1. A consensus was achieved for eight statements addressing bicycle set-up dimensions (e.g. saddle height, saddle setback, etc.) and nine statements for cycling kinematic assessment (e.g. kinematic method, two-dimensional methodology, etc.). This consensus statement provides a list of recommendations about how bicycle set-up dimensions should be measured and the best practices for collecting cycling kinematic data. These recommendations should improve the transparency, reproducibility, standardisation and interpretation of bicycle measurements and cycling kinematic data for researchers, bicycle fitters and cycling related practitioners.

Jeffery M.C., Deighton J., Lereya S.T.

Background There are more than 1.5 million children and young people in England with special educational needs (SEN), with over 160,000 young people in the United Kingdom attending a special school or alternative provision (AP) setting. Young people with SEN have been found to be at risk for poorer mental health and well-being than non-SEN peers. However, there is a range of both school-related and research challenges associated with identifying difficulties in a timely manner. Objective This Delphi study aims to determine a list of stakeholder priorities for improving school-based measurement of mental health and well-being among young people with SEN, at an aggregated level, within secondary special school or AP settings. A secondary objective is to inform the implementation of school-based well-being surveys, improve engagement in special schools or AP settings, and improve survey response rates among children and young people with SEN. Methods A mixed methods Delphi study will be conducted, including a scoping review and preliminary focus groups with school staff members and researchers to establish key issues. This will be followed by a 2-round Delphi survey to determine a list of stakeholder priorities for improving the measurement of mental health and well-being at an aggregate level within special schools and AP settings. A final stakeholder workshop will be held to discuss the findings. A list of recommendations will be drafted as a report for special schools and AP settings. Results The study has received ethical approval from the University College London Research Ethics Committee. The stage 1 scoping review has commenced. Recruitment for focus groups will begin in Autumn 2024. The first round of the Delphi survey will commence in early 2025, and the second round of the Delphi survey in the spring of 2025. The final workshop will commence in mid-2025 with final results expected in late 2025. Conclusions There is a need for clear recommendations for special schools and AP settings on priorities for improving the measurement of mental health and well-being problems among young people with SEN. There is also a need for recommendations to researchers implementing school-based well-being surveys, including the #BeeWell program, to enable them to improve their engagement in special schools and AP settings and ensure surveys are accessible. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) PRR1-10.2196/58610